Credit growth is expected to meet the set target.

(CTO) - Credit institutions forecast that liquidity will continue to improve in Q3 2025 and throughout 2025 compared to 2024. Credit institutions have slightly adjusted their expectations for credit growth in 2025 upwards to 16.8%.

Improvement, but lower than expected.

According to the Q3 2025 Business Trends Survey Report of Credit Institutions by the Forecasting, Statistics - Monetary and Financial Stability Department of the State Bank of Vietnam (SBV), credit institutions believe that customer demand for banking services (including deposit services, payment services, cards, and loans) will continue to "improve" in Q2 2025, but will be lower than expected in the previous survey. For Q3 and the whole year of 2025, credit institutions expect customer demand for banking services to continue to "improve" compared to Q2 and the previous year, with the majority of credit institutions (62.6%) expecting a greater increase in demand for loans than for payment and deposit services (45.7% - 57.3% of credit institutions).

Bank liquidity continued to improve in the second quarter (illustrative image).

According to credit institutions, the liquidity of the banking system in the second quarter continued to maintain a "good" state, and it is predicted that the liquidity situation will continue to improve in the third quarter and throughout 2025 compared to 2024. However, the level of improvement in 2025 will still be lower than the level of improvement assessed for 2024.

In the second quarter, credit institutions continued to adjust interest rate margins downwards, resulting in a slight decrease in lending rates. Credit institutions forecast that by the end of 2025, deposit and lending interest rates in VND will remain essentially unchanged compared to the end of 2024. Credit outstanding is expected to increase by an average of 4.7% in the third quarter.

In this survey, credit institutions slightly adjusted their expectations for credit growth in 2025 upwards to 16.8% (higher than the actual growth rate in 2024). If the expectations for deposit growth are adjusted upwards compared to previous surveys to 13.9% and achieved, it would be the highest annual deposit growth rate in the last 5 years.

Improve credit quality

In 2025, the State Bank of Vietnam aims for a 16% credit growth rate to support economic growth of 8% or more, as stipulated in the Government's Resolution. This is a very challenging task, requiring flexible monetary policy that simultaneously supports growth, ensures inflation control, and reduces risks across the entire banking system.

Credit institutions forecast credit growth rate in 2025 at 16.8% (illustrative image).

According to the Department of Forecasting, Statistics - Monetary and Financial Stability, the results of the business trend survey show that credit institutions believe the non-performing loan ratio will continue to slightly decrease in the second quarter and expect a sharper decrease in the third quarter. In this survey period, credit institutions continued to adjust downward their forecasts for the non-performing loan ratio/average outstanding credit balance of the entire system by the end of 2025.

Given these developments, the overall business performance and pre-tax profits of the banking system in the second quarter were assessed by credit institutions as having improved compared to the first quarter of 2025, but significantly lower than expected. Credit institutions forecast that the improving trend will continue in the remaining quarters of 2025.

The percentage of credit institutions reporting a decline in business performance compared to the previous quarter decreased from 14.8% in Q1 to 11.2% in Q2. Looking ahead to 2025, credit institutions predict that "the State Bank of Vietnam's credit, interest rate, and exchange rate policies" will be the most important objective factor positively impacting their business performance, followed by "the business and financial conditions of customers"...

According to the State Bank of Vietnam's report, as of June 30, 2025, credit growth across the entire system increased by more than 9.9% compared to the end of 2024 and by 19.32% compared to the same period in 2024, with total outstanding loans reaching over 17.2 million billion VND. Credit institutions focused on lending to priority sectors and drivers of economic growth. Most outstanding loans in the agricultural, forestry, and fisheries sectors increased compared to the end of 2024; in particular, credit institutions provided approximately 5,200 billion VND in loans for the credit program supporting the linkage of production, processing, and consumption of 1 million hectares of high-quality, low-emission rice in the Mekong Delta.

In the last six months of the year, the State Bank of Vietnam's leadership stated that it will continue to manage monetary policy in a synchronized, flexible manner, in line with actual developments. At the same time, it will closely coordinate with fiscal policy to control inflation, direct credit institutions to promptly remove bottlenecks in credit relationships with customers, increase the economy's capital absorption capacity, and contribute to achieving growth targets.

Text and photos: GIA BAO

Source: https://baocantho.com.vn/tang-truong-tin-dung-ky-vong-dat-muc-tieu-de-ra-a188487.html