Improved but lower than expected
According to the Business Trend Survey Report of Credit Institutions in the third quarter of 2025 by the Department of Forecasting, Statistics and Monetary and Financial Stabilization under the State Bank of Vietnam (SBV), credit institutions assessed that customers' demand for banking services (including deposits, payment services, cards and loans) continued to "improve" in the second quarter of 2025, but lower than expected in the previous survey. In the third quarter and the whole year of 2025, credit institutions expect customers' demand for banking services to continue to "improve" compared to the second quarter and the previous year, in which the demand for loans continues to be expected by the majority of credit institutions (62.6% of credit institutions) to "increase" more than the demand for payment and deposit services (45.7% - 57.3% of credit institutions).
Bank liquidity continued to improve in the second quarter (illustrative photo).
According to the assessment of credit institutions, the liquidity of the banking system in the second quarter continued to maintain a "good" status, and the liquidity situation is forecast to continue to improve in the third quarter and the whole year of 2025 compared to 2024. However, the level of improvement in 2025 is still lower than the level of improvement assessed for 2024.
In the second quarter, credit institutions continued to adjust their marginal interest rates downward, so lending rates also decreased slightly. By the end of 2025, credit institutions forecast that the VND deposit and lending interest rates will remain basically unchanged compared to the end of 2024. Outstanding credit is expected to increase by an average of 4.7% in the third quarter.
In this survey, credit institutions have slightly increased their expectations for credit growth in 2025 to 16.8% (higher than the actual growth rate in 2024). If the expectation for capital mobilization growth rate is increased compared to previous surveys to 13.9% and achieved, it will be the highest annual capital mobilization growth rate in the past 5 years.
Improve credit quality
In 2025, the State Bank of Vietnam (SBV) aims for a credit growth of 16% to support economic growth of 8% or more according to the Government's Resolution. This is a very challenging task, requiring flexible monetary management policies to both support growth and ensure the goal of controlling inflation and reducing risks throughout the banking system.
Credit institutions forecast credit growth rate in 2025 at 16.8% (illustrative photo).
According to the Department of Forecasting, Statistics - Monetary and Financial Stability, the results of the survey on business trends recorded that credit institutions assessed that the bad debt ratio continued to decrease slightly in the second quarter and expected a stronger decrease in the third quarter. In this survey, credit institutions continued to adjust down the forecast of the bad debt ratio/average credit balance of the whole system by the end of 2025.
With this development, the overall business situation and pre-tax profit of the banking system in the second quarter were assessed by credit institutions to have improved compared to the first quarter of 2025 but were significantly lower than expected. Credit institutions forecast that the improvement trend will continue in the remaining quarters of 2025.
The proportion of credit institutions that assessed that the business situation had declined compared to the previous quarter decreased from 14.8% in the first quarter to 11.2% in the second quarter. Forecasting for 2025, credit institutions forecast that “The State Bank’s credit policy, interest rates and exchange rates” will be the most important objective factor positively affecting the business situation of credit institutions, followed by “Customer business and financial conditions”…
According to the State Bank of Vietnam's report, as of June 30, 2025, credit growth of the entire system increased by more than 9.9% compared to the end of 2024 and increased by 19.32% compared to the same period in 2024, with a total outstanding loan balance of more than VND 17.2 million billion. Credit institutions all focus on lending to priority sectors and economic growth drivers. Most outstanding loans in the agricultural, forestry and fishery sectors have increased compared to the end of 2024; in particular, credit institutions have lent an outstanding loan balance of about VND 5,200 billion for the Credit Program to support the linkage of production, processing and consumption of 1 million hectares of high-quality, low-emission rice in the Mekong Delta.
In the last 6 months of the year, the SBV leaders said they will continue to operate monetary policy synchronously, flexibly, in accordance with actual developments. At the same time, they will closely combine it with fiscal policy to control inflation, direct credit institutions to promptly remove bottlenecks in credit relations with customers, increase the economy's ability to absorb capital, and contribute to achieving the growth target.
Article and photos: GIA BAO
Source: https://baocantho.com.vn/tang-truong-tin-dung-ky-vong-dat-muc-tieu-de-ra-a188487.html
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