Population challenges as young people marry later and richer people have fewer children

Overview of the International Workshop on Policy Consultation and Solutions to Prevent the Trend of Low Birth Rates - Photo: N.NHIEN

This was shared by Mr. Pham Vu Hoang, Deputy Director of the Population Department ( Ministry of Health ), at the International Workshop on Policy Consultation and Solutions to Prevent the Low Birth Rate Trend, organized by the Population Department and Merck Healthcare Vietnam on August 28th.

They marry later, and the wealthier they are, the fewer children they have.

At the seminar, Mr. Hoang stated that the national fertility rate is trending downwards, falling below the replacement level. The total fertility rate in 2023 was 1.96 children per woman, the lowest level ever recorded, and is projected to continue declining in the following years.

Statistics indicate that educational attainment and economic circumstances are related to birth rates.

Accordingly, the richest people have an average fertility rate of 2 children, the poorest people have a fertility rate of 2.4 children, and those with a moderate to average standard of living have between 2.03 and 2.07 children.

People with less than primary education have an average of 2.35 children, while those with more than high school education have only 1.98 children.

"The reasons for the declining birth rate are urbanization, economic development, pressure to find jobs and housing, living costs, and the cost of raising and caring for children. In addition, inadequate infrastructure such as a shortage of schools, high tuition fees, and high medical costs discourage people from having children."

"Besides, as living conditions improve, many people have a mindset of wanting to enjoy themselves, spending time and money on personal pleasures without wanting to have children," Mr. Hoang said.

Mr. Hoang also pointed out the current situation where the average age of first marriage is changing towards later marriages, increasing from 24.1 years old (in 1999) to 25.2 years old (in 2019).

After four years, by 2023, the average age for first marriage had increased by another two years and is now 27.2 years old. For men, the average age for first marriage is 29.3, and for women it is 25.1.

According to calculations, with the current sharp decline in birth rates, Vietnam's population will begin to experience negative growth by 2054, and the rate of population decline will continue to increase.

Low birth rates are not unique to Vietnam.

Speaking at the conference, Professor Nguyen Thien Nhan, a member of the 15th National Assembly and former Deputy Prime Minister, also noted that low birth rates are not just a problem for Vietnam, but for many countries around the world .

Mr. Nhan also argued that for sustainable population growth, if each family has two children, the income of a family with two working members must be sufficient to support four people comfortably. Working hours for laborers must be short enough (8 hours/day, 40 hours/week) to allow them time to get to know their partners and care for their families.

In addition, policies regarding housing and the educational environment are needed. At the same time, there should be a campaign to promote the idea that having children is a sacred responsibility to the nation.

Ms. Natascha Braumann shares insights on policies impacting birth rates - Photo: N.NHIEN

At the workshop, many international experts also shared their views on issues related to low fertility rates. According to Natascha Braumann (Global Policy Director for Reproductive, Cardiovascular and Endocrine Sciences, Merck KgaA), studies show that policies impacting total fertility rates include childcare, workplace policies, finance, and reproductive support.

In Europe, most Western European countries cover the cost of infertility treatment. In Asia, countries and territories such as Japan, South Korea, Singapore, and Taiwan also partially cover infertility treatment. Direct financial support is one of the important solutions to increase the replacement fertility rate in these countries.

Experts also suggest that the government needs to allocate budget to improve the birth rate. In reality, the policies currently implemented in Vietnam have not been truly effective.

In particular, the Program for Adjusting Birth Rates to Suit Different Regions and Target Groups by 2030, issued by the Government in 2020, has not achieved the expected results after four years of implementation. In fact, the replacement birth rate has even continued to decline.

Professor Nguyen Thien Nhan also emphasized that if Vietnam does not have breakthroughs in socio-economic and population policies, the birth rate will continue to decline sharply, following the path of some countries such as China, South Korea, and Japan.

Source: https://tuoitre.vn/thach-thuc-dan-so-khi-nguoi-tre-ket-hon-muon-va-nguoi-cang-giau-cang-sinh-it-con-20240828150329348.htm