Türkiye faces difficulties in exploiting 'spoils of war' in Syria

(CLO) The overthrow of the Assad regime and the establishment of a transitional government by the Ankara-backed opposition has allowed Turkey to begin to enhance its geopolitical position and influence in the region. However, it will not be easy for Turkey to reap the "spoils of war".

Türkiye's ambitions

The “spoils of war” here could include territories in northern Syria (with Aleppo as the country’s economic center), resolving the Kurdish issue, consolidating a position in the Middle East, and of course, the construction of a gas pipeline from Qatar through Saudi Arabia, Jordan, Syria, and Turkey to Europe.

In fact, the construction of a gas pipeline from Qatar through Saudi Arabia, Jordan, Syria, and Türkiye to Europe has been a long-held dream of the Turkish government under President Erdogan, dating back to the 2000s. It could significantly reduce the European Union's (EU) dependence on Russian gas and represents a serious geopolitical and economic step.

For Ankara, this would be a significant source of income as they gain an advantage over Brussels; moreover, they could use this leverage far more effectively than Ukraine. Türkiye could not only extract money from European countries but also use it as leverage to negotiate with them regarding Turkey's accession to the European Union (EU). It could even be used to protect Turkish communities in Germany and other European countries.

Illustrative image

However, in the 2000s, Syrian President Bashar al-Assad thwarted Türkiye's geopolitical ambitions. The Damascus government refused to allow the pipeline through its territory, with analysts arguing that Assad's decision was understandable in protecting the interests of Russia (a major gas supplier to Europe and reducing competition from Qatari gas pipelines) and Iran (which also wanted to send its gas to Europe).

There are also other opinions suggesting that the refusal of the former government in Damascus was one of the reasons why Türkiye intensified its proxy war to overthrow President Assad, increasing its support for the Syrian National Forces (SNA).

Now that opposition groups, including the Turkish-backed SNA, have overthrown the Assad regime and advanced the political transition process, it has created a favorable opportunity for Ankara to exploit the "spoils of war" in Syria.

These are not easy obstacles to overcome.

However, according to Associate Professor Gevorg Mirzayan of the Department of Political Science at the Russian Financial University, it will not be easy for the Turkish government under President Erdogan to realize its plan to build a gas pipeline through Syria. This stems from several reasons:

Firstly, the biggest obstacle is stabilizing Syria to proceed with the pipeline construction. Disagreements and power struggles among the forces claiming to be involved in the distribution of the Assad regime's legacy are immense – between Sunnis and Shiites, Kurds and Turks, Alawites and Druze, secular politicians and Islamic fundamentalists, between moderates and radicalists.

Graphic image (source: Barrons, AFP, WS)

A mixed coalition against the Assad regime would be difficult to sustain after his overthrow. Therefore, no single force could guarantee the safety of the pipeline's construction and, more importantly, its operation, similar to the lesson learned in Libya. Under such circumstances, no one would invest billions of dollars in building the pipeline.

Secondly, Qatar currently exports natural gas by tanker to East Asia and other partner markets – and the country has invested heavily in expanding these exports, particularly in the construction of liquefaction facilities.

Sending gas via pipeline (although cheaper) to Europe means depriving Europe of some liquefied natural gas (LNG) exports and generally lowers global gas prices. Therefore, Qatar's profit margin is negligible.

Theoretically, Qatar could accept these losses if Türkiye offered suitable terms. Diversifying gas supply routes is also a priority for some Qatari leaders. However, this creates another obstacle: the pipeline would pass through Saudi Arabia, where the longest section would be located.

In reality, the relationship between Saudi Arabia and Qatar has always faced difficulties and challenges. Geopolitical conflicts, complex personal relationships between the leaders of the two countries, differing views on Islam and terrorist groups in the Middle East, have led to disagreements and conflicts, culminating in the Gulf crisis from 2017 to 2021.

Oil fields in Syria are controlled by multiple parties. Photo: Internet

Although the diplomatic crisis has been resolved, there is no guarantee that Saudi Arabia will not repeat its old approach given the lingering disagreements between the parties. As a result, it will be very difficult to operate a crucial, even strategic, gas pipeline between Qatar and Saudi Arabia.

Third, the Americans are also unhappy with this plan by Türkiye. In the 2000s, the US actively supported any plan to “diversify” Russia’s gas supply to Europe at the expense of other suppliers.

However, the situation is now different. The US certainly wouldn't want other suppliers to threaten the dominant role of American companies in the European LNG market. And Qatar will also have to pay attention to the US attitude. After all, the US's role in the security environment of that country is far greater than that of Türkiye.

Clearly, with these obstacles, it will not be easy for President Erdogan's administration to realize its plan to build a gas pipeline through Syria, thereby fulfilling its geopolitical and economic ambitions.

Hung Anh

Source: https://www.congluan.vn/tho-nhi-ky-gap-kho-trong-khai-thac-chien-loi-pham-o-syria-post327170.html