Ukraine is quietly advancing through the storm, plunging its "knife" deep into Russia's flank.

Ukraine âm thầm tiến quân trong bão, cắm sâu mũi dao bên sườn Nga - 1 — Ukrainian soldiers of the 123rd Territorial Defense Brigade fire mortars across the Dnieper River toward Russian positions in Kherson province, November 6 (Photo: Getty).

ISW, citing two Russian military bloggers, reported that Ukrainian soldiers are taking advantage of the heavy snowfall and strong winds, which reduce visibility and weaken Russian defenses, to consolidate their positions in the eastern Dnieper River region.

One of the two bloggers said that gusts of wind reaching nearly 140 km/h prevented Russian forces from using artillery and aerial reconnaissance, creating an opportunity for the Ukrainian army.

However, ISW added that winter weather conditions also helped the Russian army advance closer to the center of Krynky, pushing Ukrainian forces out of the south of the village.

Meanwhile, Ukraine is unable to provide aid to the region due to rough seas and strong winds on the right bank of the Dnieper River.

Rybar, a Russian blogger, also offered a similar assessment in a Telegram post on November 27. Specifically, he stated that Ukrainian Navy units were taking advantage of the limited visibility caused by winter weather to reinforce their defensive lines in the forest near Krynky.

However, Ukraine's 38th and 36th Marine Brigades suffered losses on November 26 while attempting to gain control of central and southern Krynky, just before the storm hit.

Ants Kiviselg, head of the Estonian Defence Forces Intelligence Center, told ERR television last week that increased rainfall and low cloud ceilings would limit the capabilities of airborne assets such as drones.

Ukrainian attacks could force Russia to redeploy ground forces from the front lines to the Dnieper River, according to Kiviselg.

He also suggested that increasingly severe winter weather could restrict vehicle movement and flood trenches, turning the fighting here into a "battle of wills."

Ukraine launched its counteroffensive in June, but so far has not made as much progress as expected. Nevertheless, Ukrainian marines have achieved one objective of the counteroffensive: crossing the Dnipro River on the Kherson front and establishing positions there.

Estimates suggest that the number of Ukrainian troops who crossed the Dnieper River ranges from a few dozen to a few hundred. If Ukrainian forces can expand their control there, it could become a springboard for Kyiv to advance towards the Crimean Peninsula.

In contrast to the southern Ukrainian front, Russian forces are advancing in the east.

The UK Ministry of Defence stated on November 28th that since the beginning of October, Russian troops have advanced up to 2km in their offensive on the city of Avdiivka in Donbass. This is "one of Russia's biggest victories since spring 2023," according to the Ministry.

"This operation is gradually bringing Russian troops closer to the Avdiivka chemical and coke plant, where Ukrainian forces maintain one of their main defensive positions," the UK Ministry of Defence said.

Nevertheless, Ukraine still controls the supply route to the city in a corridor approximately 7km wide between the two Russian flanks, according to the British Ministry of Defence.

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