Should Vietnam tie with Malaysia to enter the SEA Games semi-finals?

U22 Vietnam is having trouble at the SEA Games.

Before the final round, the question was whether coach Kim Sang-sik and his team should accept a draw with Malaysia to advance to the semi-finals, or should they engage in a fight for honor and the top spot in the group. This was not just a matter of calculating points, but a tug-of-war between the fans' emotions and the tactical reality of the tournament with its special format.

The desire to win and the long-term problem

After two matches, U22 Vietnam was pushed down to second place in Group B due to a poor goal difference (+1 compared to U22 Malaysia's +3). This puts Vietnam in a position where they must beat U22 Malaysia in the match at 4 p.m. on December 11 if they want to take the top spot.

For fans, it is not only a professional goal, but also an unforgotten debt from 2023, when the Vietnamese team lost 0-4 to Malaysia in the 2027 Asian Cup qualifiers against a group of naturalized players. FIFA later determined that Malaysia used illegal players, but that heavy defeat still left an unpleasant aftertaste. The mentality of "must win at all costs" suddenly became a strong current in the hearts of fans.

However, the SEA Games is a different kind of competition, where tactics are sometimes as important as emotions. Under the new format, in addition to the three group winners, the second-placed team with the best record in the three groups will qualify for the semi-finals. This opens up a realistic possibility: if Vietnam cannot beat Malaysia, a draw will still give both teams the advantage in terms of physical strength and a further path.

The notable point is that Vietnam-Malaysia will be the earliest match to be played in the last round (4pm on December 11), while Thailand-Singapore will be played at 7pm and in group C, while Indonesia-Myanmar will be played a day later (6pm on December 12). This puts Vietnam in a position where they have to calculate in the absence of information about the most important group.

Calculating the draw: opportunities and risks from group C

Group A is almost certain to not produce a runner-up team with enough points to compete. Thailand currently has 3 points after 1 match, Timor Leste has 3 points after 2 matches, and Singapore has no points after 1 match. Even if Singapore or Timor Leste finish second, they cannot have more than 3 points. That means the runner-up team in Group A is eliminated from the race for the “best second place”.

Malaysia has shown formidable strength.

The key lies entirely in Group C. The Philippines leads with 3 points after one match, Indonesia has not played yet and Myanmar is empty-handed. Tomorrow afternoon (December 8) at 6pm, the Philippines vs Indonesia match will decide the entire calculation in Group B.

If the Philippines wins, they will have 6 points, certainly the top spot in the group. At that time, even if Indonesia or Myanmar is second in the group, they cannot have more than 3 points. If Indonesia wins the Philippines, both teams will have 3 points like Group A now. In the last round, Indonesia will meet Myanmar, but in any scenario, the second team will only have a maximum of 3 points.

But if only one scenario happens, all of Vietnam's calculations will become dangerous: Indonesia draws with the Philippines. Then, the Philippines will have 4 points and Indonesia will have 1 point before the last round. Indonesia can completely win big against Myanmar (without motivation) in the last match, and the second team in Group C will have 4 points with a very good goal difference.

This means that if Vietnam draws with Malaysia and finishes second in Group B with 4 points, Vietnam could lose the goal difference race with the second team in Group C and be eliminated bitterly without the right to decide.

To “shake hands and draw”, Vietnam must wait for the result of the Philippines-Indonesia match on the afternoon of December 8. If the winner and loser are clear, Vietnam can rest assured that they will play a draw to advance, saving their strength for the semi-finals.

But if the two teams draw, the “draw to reach the semi-finals” will become a gamble. Playing for a draw means putting yourself at risk of being eliminated due to lack of information, especially in the context of Southeast Asian football which is always full of variables.

Of course, winning is always the safest, most reasonable and… most beautiful path. It helps Vietnam keep the top position in Group B, avoid having to depend on any situation from other groups and not have to meet host Thailand early.

But in a deadlock, a calm and composed game with a draw can be a perfectly reasonable tactical choice, provided the timing and conditions are right. But how to calculate it, we have to wait… the next 90 minutes will decide.

Source: https://znews.vn/viet-nam-co-nen-bat-tay-hoa-voi-malaysia-de-vao-ban-ket-sea-games-post1609128.html