World oil prices recorded a second consecutive week of increase.

Brent crude rose about 1% and U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude rose about 3% last week, marking a second consecutive weekly gain for both benchmarks, on growing expectations that the U.S. Federal Reserve will cut interest rates next week and geopolitical uncertainties that could reduce supplies from Russia and Venezuela.

Oil rig in Texas, USA. Photo: THX/TTXVN

In the last session of the week on December 5, world oil prices increased about 1% to a two-week high. At 2:00 a.m. on December 6, Vietnam time, the price of North Sea Brent crude oil increased 47 US cents, equivalent to 0.7%, to 63.73 USD/barrel, while the price of WTI crude oil increased 42 US cents, equivalent to nearly 1%, to 60.09 USD/barrel. These developments brought the prices of both types of oil to the highest closing level since November 18.

US consumer spending rose modestly in September 2025 after three straight months of strong growth, according to newly released data, a sign that the US economy is losing momentum at the end of the third quarter of 2025, as a sluggish labor market and rising living costs have dampened demand.

US retail sales also rose less than expected in September 2025, suggesting consumers are showing signs of "running out of steam" in the face of rising price pressures due to tariffs. According to the US Department of Commerce, retail sales rose just 0.2% in September. This figure was lower than the 0.4% forecast by economists surveyed by Reuters and much lower than the 0.6% increase in August.

The report also showed that core retail sales (excluding groups such as automobiles, gasoline, construction materials and food services) fell 0.1% in September. This is a step back from the 0.6% increase (downward adjustment) in August. This group of indexes is always of special interest to observers, because they most closely reflect the structure of consumer spending in Gross Domestic Product (GDP).

The main reason for this situation is the weakening labor market, with the unemployment rate hitting a four-year high of 4.4%. This forces American consumers to think more carefully before making every purchase decision.

Based on the above figures, according to CME Group's FedWatch Tool, traders are predicting an 87% chance that the Fed will cut interest rates by another 0.25 percentage points next week. A rate cut by the Fed will provide a boost to oil prices as the move is expected to boost economic growth and energy demand.

Oil prices were also supported by positive developments in trade relations between the US and other countries. Senior officials from China and the US held a phone call on December 5 to discuss trade issues, including ongoing efforts to implement the recently reached trade agreement between the two countries.

Observers say any developments that help ease trade tensions between the US and other countries could be a boost to economic growth and energy demand.

In addition, investors are also paying attention to news from Russia and Venezuela to determine whether oil supplies from these two countries will increase or decrease in the future.

The developments surrounding the conflict between Russia and Ukraine and the possibility of a supply glut were the two main factors driving oil prices this week. Concerns about the possibility of supply disruptions from Russia following Ukraine's military actions pushed oil prices up more than 1% in the first session of the week. But those gains were almost wiped out in the following session due to concerns about oversupply. However, the deadlock in peace talks between Russia and Ukraine helped support oil prices in the following two sessions.

Regarding the oil price outlook, Mr. Anh Pham, senior research expert at LSEG, commented that the supply factor will still be the focus of attention in the coming time. According to him, if a peace agreement with Russia is reached, oil supply to the market will be more abundant, creating pressure to pull prices down.

However, he also warned that on the other hand, any escalation of geopolitical tensions would push prices higher. In addition, the commitment of the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) and its allies, known as OPEC+, to maintain stable production until early next year is also a factor helping to support oil prices.

OPEC+ agreed on November 30 to maintain the group's crude oil production level until December 2026 and adopt a mechanism to determine the maximum oil production capacity of its members. In November 2025, OPEC+, the alliance that accounts for about half of the world's oil, paused production increases in the first quarter of 2026 due to seasonal weakness in demand.

In a statement after the meetings, OPEC+ said the group reaffirmed the previously agreed collective production levels of OPEC and non-OPEC countries until December 31, 2026. OPEC+ said it also approved a mechanism to assess the maximum sustainable production capacity of member countries as a reference for determining production levels in 2027.

Meanwhile, according to data from the US Energy Information Administration (EIA), US crude oil and fuel inventories increased last week due to increased refining activity. US crude oil reserves increased by 574,000 barrels to 427.5 million barrels in the week ended November 28, contrary to forecasts for a decrease of 821,000 barrels surveyed by Reuters.

Source: https://baotintuc.vn/thi-truong-tien-te/gia-dau-the-gioi-ghi-nhan-tuan-tang-thu-hai-lien-tiep-20251206082659898.htm