The Champions League takes an unexpected turn.

THEY SURPRISINGLY CONTINUED

Immediately after the quarter-finals concluded, the supercomputer of the renowned statistics firm Opta released the following probabilities for the four remaining teams to win the Champions League: Real Madrid (39.31%), PSG (27.41%), Bayern Munich (16.90%), Borussia Dortmund (16.38%). All of this is for reference only, of course.

Will PSG (right) become the Champions League champions this year?

Incidentally, let's look at Opta's predictions for the teams' chances of reaching the semi-finals on April 15th, right before the four second-leg quarter-final matches. The pairings were: Man. City (64.9%) - Real Madrid (35.1%); Barcelona (76.5%) - PSG (23.5%); Bayern Munich (52%) - Arsenal (48%); and Borussia Dortmund (35%) - Atletico Madrid (65%). Only the Bayern - Arsenal pairing was nearly evenly matched, and that was the only one where Opta's statistics proved accurate. The other three pairings were significantly lopsided. And strangely enough, in those supposedly lopsided pairings, the teams considered significantly weaker ended up reaching the semi-finals!

Statistics from major bookmakers and odds always lead to reasonable predictions… before the match ends. For example, Bayern Munich is, of course, superior in every aspect to the other Bundesliga representative, Borussia Dortmund. But the chances of Bayern and Dortmund winning the Champions League are almost equal, because Bayern first has to face Real Madrid, while Dortmund's opponent in the semi-finals is "only" PSG. According to Opta data, the probability of each team winning in the semi-finals is: Bayern (33.67%) - Real (66.33%) and Dortmund (40.39%) - PSG (59.61%).

England are completely out of contention in the Champions League semi-finals as Real Madrid proved too resilient.

TACTICS AND DECISIVE SPIRIT

What can be expected is that the upcoming semi-final matches will be highly tactical, and when discussing tactics in top-level football, two accompanying factors are inseparable: discipline and spirit. In the quarter-finals, all four teams defeated their opponents (who, as mentioned, were considered stronger) using these factors. In a way, it can be understood that tactics, discipline, and spirit triumphed over the coach's philosophy and the players' talent. Arsenal, with a very evenly matched squad of talented players and a strong impression of coach Mikel Arteta's philosophy, failed to capitalize on their advantage, only managing a draw against Bayern in the first leg at home. And in the second leg, as coach Arteta himself admitted, Arsenal were punished by a moment of mental fortitude.

Bayern Munich are overjoyed.

When it comes to philosophy, of course no one is more famous than Pep Guardiola. But Pep's Man City, with 67.3% possession and 33 shots on goal, couldn't beat Real Madrid, who typically defended deep outside their own penalty area (Real only had 8 shots in 120 minutes). That was never the familiar Real, who always kept possession in La Liga. But Real couldn't just play like they do in La Liga when their opponent was Man City. The most important thing that helped Real eliminate the team always considered the top title contender was their mentality. Following that was the spirit. Even when Luka Modric missed the first penalty, Real's reaction, and Modric's own, still showed their superior spirit.

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