With the supply of apartments continuing to increase in the near future, will selling prices decrease?

(Dan Tri Newspaper) - Experts believe that this year, the Hanoi apartment market will no longer experience a price surge but will instead move towards greater stability.

The supply of apartments in Hanoi continues to increase.

According to data from Savills Vietnam, the total supply of new apartments in Hanoi in 2024 reached nearly 25,000 units, the highest in the past five years. In the fourth quarter of 2024 alone, the supply reached 12,972 units, a sharp increase of 146% quarter-on-quarter and 351% year-on-year.

Ms. Do Thu Hang, Senior Director of Consulting and Research at Savills Hanoi, said that the supply shortage in the Hanoi market is improving. However, selling prices remain high, reflecting continued strong market demand. Housing demand is primarily driven by domestic buyers, with long-term demand supported by a positive net immigration rate and urbanization.

In 2025, the projected supply of new apartments is expected to reach 25,200 units. Of these, Class B apartments will continue to lead, accounting for 88% of the future supply. From 2026 onwards, approximately 70,000 apartments from 91 projects will be launched. Dong Anh, Hoai Duc, and Hoang Mai districts are expected to contribute 52% of the market share.

Nguyen Van Dinh - Chairman of the Vietnam Association of Real Estate Brokers (VARS) - predicts that the supply of apartments this year will grow by about 10% compared to 2024. In fact, many projects are also planning to launch new units to capitalize on the market's recovery.

However, the projected supply will still be mainly contributed by large urban areas in the northern provinces and cities developed by major investors. Hanoi and its satellite cities are estimated to have approximately 37,000 units this year, while Ho Chi Minh City and its surrounding areas are estimated to have around 18,000 units.

An apartment complex in Hanoi (Photo: Tran Khang).

According to Mr. Dinh, the supply of housing will continue to be scarce, especially in the affordable housing segment. The supply from social housing projects is expected to grow significantly in 2025, but will still account for a very small proportion of the overall housing supply in the market. Apartment units, mainly those priced from 50 million VND/m2 and above, are predicted to continue leading the market, with an increase in the supply of luxury apartments.

He believes that housing projects launched this year will still attract interest and transactions, but the absorption rate is likely to slow down. The apartment segment will continue to dominate market liquidity.

Will apartment prices decrease?

According to Mr. Dinh's assessment, apartment prices are unlikely to decline this year. The reason is that the new primary supply entering the market this year will mainly focus on the high-end and luxury segments in major urban areas. Therefore, apartment prices will continue to remain high. "The overall price level of apartments is unlikely to fall; it will only remain stable," he said.

According to Ms. Duong Thuy Dung, CEO of CBRE Vietnam, house prices will not fall this year, but the growth rate will slow down to around 5-8%. Primary sales prices continue to rise because although supply has improved, it is still difficult to meet demand as most new supply is completed to high standards with large investment costs.

Concurring with the above opinions, Associate Professor Dr. Dinh Trong Thinh - an economic expert - stated that in 2024, the Hanoi apartment market witnessed excessively rapid price increases. Apartment prices rose to over 70 million VND/m2 by the end of 2024, with no projects priced below 60 million VND/m2. Many mid-range projects saw their selling prices pushed up to 100 million VND/m2.

However, according to Mr. Thinh, the upward trend in apartment prices will slow down in the near future, and the market will tend to become more stable, no longer experiencing the overheating seen recently. Buyers' money will tend to shift from areas with high prices to areas and projects with more competitive prices and more room for growth.

Source: https://dantri.com.vn/bat-dong-san/nguon-cung-chung-cu-tiep-tuc-tang-trong-thoi-gian-toi-gia-ban-se-giam-20250217022158898.htm