British General Election: On the threshold of a new era

This early general election could mark an important transfer of power between the two leading political parties in Britain.

Current Prime Minister Rishi Sunak (left) and Leader of the opposition Labour Party Keir Starmer. (Source: Independent)

On July 4, the UK will go to the polls for the first time in nearly five years. During this time, London has witnessed a series of major changes: King Charles III was crowned, three prime ministers took power, and the UK has been steered through many upheavals, whether it be Brexit, the Covid-19 pandemic, the Russia-Ukraine conflict, Israel-Hamas, US-China competition, and the emergence of a series of new security challenges.

In that context, this election could mark another important change: the opposition Labour Party is on the verge of regaining power from the Conservatives after 14 years.

What is the probability for this scenario?

Challenge for the old

The scenario of the Labour Party's return is well-founded when looking at what the UK is facing. The Financial Times (UK) commented that the country's economic growth since 2010 has lagged behind the historical trend since World War II. The economic burden has reached a record in 80 years, government debt is at its highest level in the past 6 decades. Infrastructure and public services, from the health system, public transport to the wastewater management system, show signs of overload, while defense capacity has not responded to the rapid and complex changes of the international situation.

In addition, there have been many scandals involving Conservative Party leaders in recent times, notably former Prime Minister Boris Johnson. His successor, Liz Truss, also served only 45 days before having to cede the position to Mr. Rishi Sunak. However, whether Mr. Sunak can sit in the hot seat after July 4 is still difficult to say. The heavy defeat of the Conservative Party in the local elections in early May is clear evidence of that possibility.

But it would be unfair to deny what Mr Sunak has achieved. Inflation in the UK was 11% at the end of 2022 - now it has dropped to 2.3%, the lowest in three years and exactly what he promised. But the current British Prime Minister's other promises such as economic growth, debt reduction, improved healthcare and curbing immigration have not achieved the same results.

Opportunity for newcomers

On the other hand, according to the Financial Times , the Labour Party under Mr. Keir Starmer is currently in a good position to return to the leadership of the UK. Five years ago, under Mr. Jeremy Corbyn, a politician with a far-left tendency, this scenario was considered unrealistic. But now, with the leadership of Mr. Starmer, the Labour Party has gradually escaped from its old interventionism and transformed itself into a credible leading political party with a more moderate stance.

Mr Starmer and the Chancellor have worked hard to work with businesses and restore confidence in London’s financial district. This approach is less ideological than that of the Conservative government and has been welcomed by businesses. Labour has also put restoring growth at the heart of its agenda.

The stability, predictability and competence that the party promises are things that have been lacking in British governance for years. These are essential elements to help London attract investment. Commitments to reform the planning system and give more powers to regions to remove constraints on growth, housing capacity and infrastructure are what the British economy needs.

But the picture is not all rosy for Labour. Its reluctance to talk about a trade relationship with the EU would “block” another way to boost economic growth. At the same time, if in power, Labour would soon face the difficult task of drastically cutting public spending, changing financial regulations or tax leverage. The London-based Institute for Fiscal Studies warned that Labour’s pledges to increase real spending on health, education and defense would mean cuts to other public services totaling £9 billion ($11.41 billion) a year by 2028.

Change to survive

Finally, it is not difficult to see that the trend for change in Europe is becoming stronger than ever. In the French parliamentary elections on June 30, the far-right National Front (RN) party of Ms. Marine Le Pen won 34% of the vote, followed by the left-wing New Popular Front with 28%. The centrist ruling coalition of current President Emmanuel Macron won only 20% of the vote.

It seems that the decision to hold early parliamentary elections did not bring the results that the French leader had calculated. More importantly, the change in the balance of power in one of the "leading" countries of the European Union (EU) will have a significant impact on the bloc's stance on many key issues such as the Russia-Ukraine conflict, the Israel-Hamas conflict, relations with the US and China, or non-traditional security issues such as fighting illegal immigrants or fighting climate change, etc.

Mr. Sunak, with the decision to hold a national election nearly 6 months earlier than expected, clearly does not want to follow in the footsteps of the French President. But after all, in the context of the Labour Party's advantage, the story of "staying or leaving" of the Conservative Party and the British Prime Minister will now lie in the votes of nearly 4 million voters in the foggy country.

On July 4, British voters will choose 650 members of Parliament in a single round - the candidate with the most votes will win, even if they do not get a majority. The party with enough votes will be asked by King Charles III to form a government. If no party gets that much, the current Prime Minister will remain in power until the parties reach an agreement to form a coalition, form a minority government, or resign.

Source: https://baoquocte.vn/tong-tuyen-cu-anh-truoc-nguong-cua-moi-277312.html