Both the free market and bank exchange rates for the US dollar have surged sharply in recent days. UOB forecasts the US dollar will reach 26,000 VND in the third quarter of this year.
UOB forecasts the USD exchange rate to reach 26,000 VND in the third quarter of this year - Photo: QUANG DINH
The USD price unexpectedly surged.
At Vietcombank , before the Tet holiday, the selling price of USD was listed at 25,300 VND/USD. However, after Tet, the USD price rose and remained at a high level.
On February 3rd, the selling price of USD at banks increased to 25,500 VND/USD, then decreased to 25,360 VND/USD on February 4th, but subsequently increased to 25,450 VND/USD and 25,470 VND/USD on February 6th and 7th, respectively.
The buying price for USD is 25,080 VND/USD today.
At Eximbank, the selling price of USD rose to 25,480 VND/USD, while the buying price was 25,090 VND/USD.
At Sacombank , the selling price of USD also rose to 25,480 VND/USD, while the buying price was 25,100 VND/USD.
In the free market, the selling price of USD is 25,680 VND/USD, and the buying price is 25,580 VND/USD.
The central exchange rate listed by the State Bank of Vietnam also increased by 37 VND/USD today, reaching 24,462 VND/USD.
Since the beginning of 2025, the central exchange rate has increased by approximately 283 VND/USD, equivalent to a 1.1% increase.
UOB forecasts the USD exchange rate could reach 26,000 VND/USD.
Regarding exchange rates, the Global Market and Economic Research Department of UOB Bank (Singapore) believes that, in the context of rising US inflation expectations, the USD is the main beneficiary of the "tariff risk premium".
"We forecast the USD index to rise to 112.6 in Q2 2025. UOB's forecast of a 25 basis point interest rate cut by the Fed this year is now in stark contrast to the expected 75 basis point cuts from the European Central Bank (ECB), 100 basis point cuts from the Bank of England (BOE) and the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA), and 125 basis point cuts from the Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) for the remainder of 2025."
"The widening interest rate differential will be a key driver of the USD against other major currencies, further strengthening the USD in the first half of 2025. The EUR will also face additional pressure from the ongoing tariff threat from the US," UOB noted.
UOB also forecasts that EUR/USD will lead the decline to 0.98 in Q2 2025, followed by GBP/USD falling to 1.20 and AUD/USD falling to 0.59 during the same period.
Regarding the CNY, in the context of slowing Chinese growth and the risk of escalating tariffs to UOB's expected base rate of 25%, UOB also believes that further depreciation of the currency is unavoidable.
"We maintain our forecast that the USD/CNY exchange rate will continue to rise to 7.65 in Q3 2025. Other Asian currencies will also follow this trend, with the highest exchange rates of 2025 recorded in Q3 2025 at: USD/SGD 1.4, USD/MYR 4.65, USD/IDR 16,900, USD/THB 35.40 and USD/VND 26,000," UOB stated in its forecast.
Regarding gold prices, UOB forecasts that the global gold price will reach $3,000 per ounce by the end of this year.
Source: https://tuoitre.vn/uob-du-bao-gia-usd-co-the-len-26-000-dong-vao-quy-3-20250207201914154.htm
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