MXV-Index increased by 3%, green dominated the commodity market

Global commodity markets closed the week of September 22-26 in the green, with the MXV-Index jumping nearly 3% to 2,284 points. Oil prices recovered strongly under the pressure of geopolitical tensions, while coffee prices continued to "heat up" due to the prospect of tight supply.

Geopolitical tensions push oil prices up sharply

According to the Vietnam Commodity Exchange (MXV), the energy market last week witnessed overwhelming buying power when all 5 commodities in the group increased sharply. In particular, the price of two crude oil commodities simultaneously increased sharply by more than 5% to 65.7 USD/barrel for WTI oil and 70.1 USD/barrel for Brent oil.

Global crude oil prices have been boosted by rising geopolitical tensions over the past week, particularly developments surrounding the conflict between Russia and Ukraine. Attacks on Russian energy facilities have raised concerns about supply disruptions from the world’s second-largest crude producer, while the situation in the Gaza Strip has also affected security and supply in the Middle East.

In addition, oil prices were also supported by positive data from the weekly report of the US Energy Information Administration (EIA) released on September 24, showing that commercial crude oil reserves in the US decreased by 607,000 barrels in the week ending September 19, contrary to previous expectations of a slight increase. Previously, the American Petroleum Institute (API) also reported a decrease of nearly 4 million barrels, contributing to increasing confidence in the recovery of oil prices.

Notably, refined product inventories such as gasoline also fell sharply, notably gasoline inventories fell by more than 1 million barrels, even though domestic refineries increased capacity with crude oil input and output both increasing compared to the previous week. This development reflects that consumption demand in the world's largest economy remains stable, despite the end of the peak travel season.

This is also reflected in the US GDP growth data in the second quarter of 2025, when this index reached its highest level since the beginning of 2024, according to the official report from the US Bureau of Economic Analysis. This positive macroeconomic situation is expected to continue to support energy demand, but also makes the US Federal Reserve (Fed) more cautious in deciding to cut the base interest rate in the near future.

In the domestic market, similar to last week, retail gasoline prices continued to adjust in the opposite direction to world crude oil prices due to the influence of the downward trend of refined gasoline products on the SGX floor. In the price adjustment session on September 25, the Ministry of Industry and Trade - Ministry of Finance adjusted the prices of three out of five main products down.

Specifically, the prices of E5RON92 and RON95 gasoline decreased by 1.84% and 2.15%, respectively; while the price of diesel oil decreased slightly by 0.25%. According to the official announcement, the main factors include the increase in oil export output by OPEC+, along with increasing geopolitical tensions in the Middle East and new developments related to the military conflict between Russia and Ukraine, especially incidents affecting Russian energy facilities.

Coffee prices recover amid supply pressure

Meanwhile, not outside the general trend of the whole market, the group of industrial materials also recorded relatively positive developments, especially two coffee products. In particular, the price of Arabica coffee increased by more than 3.1% compared to the previous week, reaching 8,334 USD/ton while the price of Robusta coffee also increased by about 1.6% to 4,201 USD/ton.

According to MXV, concerns surrounding supply in Brazil continue to surround the market, thereby supporting the prices of these two commodities to recover this week. Last week, the country's carryover inventories continued to remain low, along with Brazil's 2025-2026 crop production falling more than forecast, raising concerns about the quality and volume of the harvest in the coming crop. At the same time, the unfavorable weather situation also reinforced analysts' concerns, causing prices to quickly recover.

Meanwhile, at the United Nations on Tuesday, President Donald Trump announced that he and President Lula had agreed to meet next week. The news fueled hopes in the market for progress on trade agreements between the two countries. However, tariffs remain in place, causing a coffee shortage in the US to continue, especially for Arabica coffee. This led to a sharp drop in certified Arabica coffee inventories on the ICE Futures US exchange in New York last week, to 576,753 bags on Friday, a decrease of nearly 30% compared to the same period last year. Year-to-date, inventories of this type have decreased by 41.14%, equivalent to 403,514 bags.

According to the CLIMATEMPO bulletin, the weather in Brazil’s inland coffee growing regions was mostly dry over the weekend, with temperatures gradually rising. Early next week, the heat will increase significantly, especially during the transition period between September and October, when the southeastern coffee-producing region, from Triângulo Mineiro to Cerrado, could record maximum temperatures of up to 35°C. This puts a lot of heat stress on coffee plantations that have just received rain and entered the flowering stage. In the second half of the first week of October, a new cold front is forecast to affect, but the rainfall is expected to be quite limited and localized, mainly concentrated in the regions of Paraná, São Paulo and southern Minas Gerais on October 3-5. Meanwhile, a stronger weather system, bringing widespread rain and heavy rainfall, is expected to appear in the second week of October.

In the domestic market, the Central Highlands region has seen scattered rains but has not significantly affected coffee plants. Domestic green coffee prices continue to fluctuate strongly following the world price trend, in the context of slow transactions. In Gia Lai, coffee prices are traded around 117,000 - 118,000 VND/kg, an increase of about 5,000 - 6,000 VND/kg compared to last week. New crop coffee is currently trading at 105,000 - 106,000 VND/kg.

Source: https://baotintuc.vn/thi-truong-tien-te/chi-so-mxvindex-tang-3-sac-xanh-ap-dao-tren-thi-truong-nguyen-lieu-hang-hoa-20250929095902207.htm