Through various offensive tactics, Ukraine reversed Russia's naval dominance in the Black Sea, facilitating the resumption of exports at the main port of Odessa.
Commercial ships have begun departing from the main port of Odessa in southern Ukraine to carry exports along the Black Sea coast without security guarantees from Russia, indicating a changing situation in the Black Sea. By repeatedly conducting missile strikes and launching domestically produced suicide drones, Ukraine is pushing Russia from a blockade of the Black Sea to a defensive stance.
"To ensure current and future security, we must reclaim the coastline. This is a tactic we are striving to implement little by little," said Ukrainian Navy Commander Oleksiy Neizhpapa.
When Russia launched hostilities in late February 2022, the Ukrainian navy was completely outnumbered and lost all control of the Black Sea. Ukraine reportedly sank its flagship in port to prevent it from falling into Russian hands.
Russia deployed Black Sea Fleet warships close to the Ukrainian coast, to the point that residents of Odessa could see them with the naked eye. The Russian warships continuously shelled the city, completely blockading all sea traffic and paralyzing the port of Odessa.
But to date, Russian warships no longer risk venturing into the northwestern Black Sea region, due to the threat from Ukrainian missiles and mines. The Black Sea Fleet also suffered heavy losses after a series of long-range attacks by Ukraine.
The cargo ship Joseph Schulte departed from the port of Odessa on August 16. Photo: Reuters
In addition to targeting Russian warships in the Black Sea, Ukraine has recently intensified its attacks on the ports of Sevastopol in Crimea and Novorossiysk in Russia.
Ukraine's cruise missile attack on a shipyard in Sevastopol last week destroyed the Kilo-class submarine Rostov-on-Don, one of six Russian submarines operating in the Black Sea, as well as the Ropucha-class landing ship Minsk, which Russia had intended to use to land troops on the coast of Odessa.
The damage from the attack will undoubtedly further complicate Russian naval operations in the coming months, according to military analysts. In addition to the navy, the Ukrainian air force and intelligence special forces have been involved in numerous attacks in the Black Sea.
Several types of long-range unmanned boats manufactured in Ukraine offer a new attack option at a time when Kyiv cannot deploy conventional warships. "Clearly, unmanned boats have made the adversary feel tense and insecure right in their own ports, let alone at sea," Neizhpapa said.
The conflict in the Black Sea entered a new phase in July after Russia withdrew from the UN-brokered Black Sea Grain Initiative. The agreement had allowed Ukraine to export 33 million tons of grain by ship under Russian control, but it also restricted the Ukrainian military's operational capabilities at sea.
To gain an advantage, Ukraine used unmanned boats to attack Russian oil tankers in the Kerch Strait in August and declared all major Russian ports in the Black Sea as "areas of conflict risk." This list included Novorossiysk, Russia's largest commercial port and a crucial gateway for Moscow's vital oil exports.
How Ukrainian suicide boats attacked Russian targets. Video : AiTelly
Neizhpapa said Ukrainian forces have no intention of interfering with civilian shipping in the Black Sea. However, he added that the 1994 San Remo agreement on naval warfare allows his forces to target commercial vessels supporting the Russian military or escorted by warships and aircraft.
"They were all legitimate targets," he said.
When the grain deal ended, the Ukrainian military unilaterally announced last month a new corridor for civilian cargo ships to and from Odessa, traversing Romanian and Bulgarian waters to reach Türkiye's Bosphorus Strait. Six ships have already left the port of Odessa through this corridor, including a Palau-flagged vessel that arrived to pick up grain last weekend.
Ukrainian officials claim that the resumption of exports in Odessa is thanks to their ability to attack Russian ports.
"The Russians must realize that the Black Sea is no longer a one-sided affair, but a two-sided one. If you don't bother us, we won't bother you," said Dmytro Barinov, deputy executive director of the Ukrainian Ports Authority.
Video released by the SBU shows Ukrainian drone attacks. Video: CNN
In addition to drone attacks, Ukrainian special forces have also used small speedboats to conduct a series of raids in recent weeks. They eliminated crucial electronic surveillance equipment deployed by Russia on gas platforms west of the Crimean Peninsula. Another group also carried out a lightning landing on the western coast of Crimea in an attempt to destroy Russian air defense systems.
"Clearly, the Russians no longer hold the initiative in the Black Sea due to the diverse offensive tactics of the Ukrainian navy and special forces. That's a very significant change. The Ukrainians are gradually regaining the initiative, and a series of small victories have begun to contribute to strategic success," said Michael Petersen, director of the Russian Maritime Studies Institute at the U.S. Naval War College.
Despite having a strong navy, Russia cannot send more ships to the Black Sea to compensate for losses, as Türkiye, which controls the strait between the Black Sea and the Mediterranean, has banned warships from passing through since February 2022, in accordance with the 1936 Montreux Convention.
According to Neizhpapa, an area of approximately 25,000 square kilometers in the northwestern Black Sea has become uncontrolled. However, Russia still maintains air superiority there, which Neizhpapa believes will end when Kyiv receives F-16 fighter jets in the coming months.
"I can guarantee that if F-16s appear over the Odessa region, no Russian aircraft will be able to operate in the northwestern Black Sea," he said.
Last April, Ukrainian forces attacked the Black Sea Fleet's flagship, the Moskva, with domestically produced Neptune missiles, making it one of the largest warships sunk since World War II.
Initially, Ukraine intended to target the Russian destroyer Admiral Essen, but the ship's electronic warfare system thwarted the attack, Neizhpapa said. The Admiral Essen sustained only minor damage and several sailors were injured.
"Even so, Russia still didn't really believe we had Neptune missiles," Neizhpapa said, adding that the flagship Moskva was later targeted by the domestically produced missile.
In addition to Odessa, Ukraine has also developed trade routes with ports along the Danube River, the natural border between Ukraine and Romania. In recent months, three ports—Izmail, Reni, and Kiliya—have been repeatedly attacked by Russian drones, according to Ukrainian officials.
Location of Odessa and the Black Sea. Graphic: WP
However, the Danube river ports continue to operate. In August, the Danube ports handled 3.2 million tonnes of grain. Meanwhile, ports in Odessa exported around 4.2 million tonnes per month when the Black Sea grain agreement was in effect.
River transport is only suitable for ships under 10,000 tons, much smaller than the cargo ships that dock at Odessa port. This results in lower cargo volumes but higher costs.
"Logistical costs eat up all the profit," said Borys Yureskul, a farmer in Ukraine.
That is why resuming operations at the port of Odessa is a top priority for Ukraine. Kyiv officials say they cannot guarantee 100% safety of cargo ships from Russian attacks, but are negotiating with ship owners to increase the number of vessels docking at the port.
"We will ensure their safety at all costs," Neizhpapa declared.
Thanh Tam (According to WSJ )
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