The real estate market is recovering, gold prices are soaring, and deposit interest rates are rising slightly… These investment channels may attract more capital from investors, but the stock market is considered to have the most promising prospects as the profits of listed companies recover.
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| Stocks are considered the most promising investment channel today. (Photo: Duc Thanh) |
Idle money finds a way out.
Deposit interest rates at most banks are rising again, with some even increasing by nearly 1% per year compared to before. As of early June 2024, the highest rates had reached over 6% per year, mainly for long-term deposits, concentrated in the group of small private banks.
Dr. Le Xuan Nghia, a member of the National Financial and Monetary Policy Advisory Council, believes that the increase in interest rates stems from three factors: inflation, exchange rates, and gold prices. However, the increase in deposit interest rates over the past two months has been moderate, giving depositors the feeling that they are not being disadvantaged and not implying a reversal of monetary policy.
According to Mr. Nghia, maintaining low interest rates to stabilize and revive the economy is crucial at this time. Therefore, lending interest rates will continue to remain low, while savings interest rates will be adjusted slightly upwards.
Given the current situation of increasing deposits from the public flowing into the banking system and the resurgence of credit outstanding at some banks, savings interest rates are predicted to rise slightly in the near future. Vietcombank Securities Company (VCBS) analyzes that the deposit interest rate level may increase by about 0.5 to 1%, but the upward trend in deposit interest rates is unlikely to create a market-wide race to increase deposit interest rates.
Dr. Dinh The Hien, Director of the Institute for Applied Informatics and Economics Research, also believes that many banks are having to increase deposit interest rates to ensure a balance of capital sources. In addition, in 2024, several factors will also negatively impact interest rates, including: higher inflation than in 2023, projected at around 3.4%; a high exchange rate; and fluctuating gold prices, with sharp increases at times. However, according to Dr. Hien, with the government's control policies, especially prohibiting banks from lending below standard, and encouraging cost savings to reduce interest rates and increase interest rates to attract capital due to difficulties in debt collection, interest rates, even if they increase, will not exceed 1% compared to 2023.
According to Ms. Bui Thi Thao Ly, Director of Analysis at Shinhan Securities Vietnam (SSV), listed companies' profits will continue to rise thanks to the recovery of the banking and real estate sectors. At the end of the first quarter of 2024, profits of listed companies on the HOSE increased by approximately 11.5% compared to the same period last year, and are estimated to increase by 15% for the whole year, mainly due to the sustained growth of banking profits and the recovery of the real estate sector in the second half of the year.
Which investment channel should I choose?
According to Dr. Nguyen Tri Hieu, a financial and banking expert, the real estate market is showing signs of activity from the second half of 2024. When the economy stabilizes and real estate and stocks recover, gold tends to decrease or remain stable. Conversely, if economic indicators remain difficult and other investment channels stagnate, the price of gold may increase due to people's tendency to hoard and use gold as a precautionary measure. Regarding the USD, experts assess that the greenback will be on a downward trend from now until 2027, and the State Bank of Vietnam will implement various measures to stabilize the value of the VND. Therefore, investing in USD is not a good option.
The stock market is showing many positive signs, and the real estate market is also recovering in many segments. Therefore, these two channels will be good choices for investors in the current period. 
.AFA Capital CEO, Mr. Nguyen Minh Tuan, affirmed that among current investment channels, including savings, gold, stocks, and real estate, investors should increase their proportion of bank deposits and continue to maintain their stock holdings. Regarding gold specifically, Mr. Tuan suggested that increasing investment before a gold rush, as recommended by AFA Capital, would be very beneficial. However, at this point, with everyone rushing into gold, investors should be cautious because the price of gold globally is still supported, especially by the potential decline in the USD. Nevertheless, the State Bank of Vietnam has recently shown a clear determination and effort to stabilize the gold market. Consequently, the price of gold will decrease, and the FOMO (fear of missing out) sentiment in gold will lessen.
Dr. Le Xuan Nghia also believes that with investment channels showing signs of FOMO (fear of missing out), investors should be cautious. Real estate, although only just beginning to recover, remains a very noteworthy investment channel because it follows economic growth; when the economy rises, real estate rises, and vice versa. "If you want to invest in real estate, you should buy now because the market will rise in the next 1-1.5 years," Dr. Nghia advised.
Ms. Thieu Thi Nhat Le, General Director of UOB Asset Management Vietnam (UOBAM Vietnam), commented that, in the context of a recovering real estate market, the recent surge in gold prices, and a potential slight increase in interest rates, these investment channels may attract more capital from investors. However, with macroeconomic factors supporting the growth of the stock market in the medium and long term, along with the increasing investment demand from domestic investors, the stock market continues to be an attractive channel that investors can hardly ignore.
Similarly, according to Dr. Can Van Luc, chief economist of BIDV, with a 12-month deposit interest rate of 5-6% per year, investors are still not at too much of a disadvantage. In addition, real estate and stocks are also noteworthy investment channels. Since the beginning of the year, the stock market has recovered and continues to show many positive signs (average trading value in the first six months reached VND 24,598 billion, a 39.9% increase compared to the previous year's average). Meanwhile, the real estate market has also recovered in many segments, especially industrial real estate and affordable apartments.
Source: https://baodautu.vn/chon-kenh-dau-tu-nao-hieu-qua-d220669.html
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