Coffee prices fell across the board

At the end of yesterday's trading session, Robusta and Arabica coffee prices both fell more than 1% as the market received positive information about supply.

According to the Vietnam Commodity Exchange (MXV), selling pressure returned to dominate the world raw material market in yesterday's trading session (January 8). Notably, the industrial raw material group led the decline when 7 out of 9 items simultaneously decreased in price. In addition, red also dominated the price list of agricultural products with many items such as wheat, corn, and soybeans also going down. At the end of the session, the MXV-Index fell slightly by 0.66% to 2,214 points.

Thị trường hàng hóa 9/1: Giá cà phê giảm hơn 1%

MXV-Index

Coffee prices under pressure on optimistic signals about supply

At the end of yesterday's trading session, except for two rubber products, the prices of all other products in the industrial raw material group decreased. In particular, Robusta and Arabica coffee prices both decreased by more than 1% when the market received positive information about supply.

Industrial raw material price list

Specifically, according to Embrapa Coffee's report, within one year from October 2023 to September 2024, the total world coffee output will reach 178 million bags, an increase of 5.82% over the same period last year. Of which, Arabica coffee will reach 102.2 million bags, accounting for 57.41% of total output; Robusta coffee will reach 75.8 million bags, corresponding to 42.59% of market share.

In 2024, coffee output in Colombia, the world's second-largest producer of Arabica coffee, is estimated to increase for the second consecutive year due to favorable weather conditions in key coffee growing areas. According to data released by the Colombian Coffee Federation (FNC) yesterday, the country's total coffee output reached 13.9 million 60-kg bags, up 23% compared to 2023 and 300,000 bags higher than the previous forecast. In terms of exports, Colombia exported 12.3 million 60-kg bags in 2024, up 16% year-on-year. In December alone, the FNC said Colombia's coffee output reached 1.79 million 60-kg bags, up 47% year-on-year; exports reached 1.28 million 60-kg bags, up 20% year-on-year.

In the domestic market, coffee prices in the Central Highlands and the Southeast this morning (January 9) were recorded at 120,000 - 121,000 VND/kg, down 600 - 1,000 VND/kg compared to yesterday. However, compared to the same period last year, coffee prices have nearly doubled.

In a similar development, March cotton futures fell 0.41% due to pressure from a stronger US dollar. The Dollar Index, a measure of the strength of the US dollar against six other major currencies, closed up 0.5% at 109.09 yesterday, continuing to maintain a two-year high. A stronger US dollar increases investment costs for investors holding other currencies. At the same time, a stronger US dollar also reduces the competitiveness of US cotton, thereby reducing buying power in the market.

Red dominates the agricultural product price list

According to MXV, at the end of yesterday's trading session, the price list of agricultural products was covered in red. Notably, Chicago wheat prices led the decline of the group after losing 1.15% in yesterday's session, bringing the trading price to 197 USD/ton. The main reason for pressure on prices in yesterday's session was the strengthening of the USD.

Agricultural product price list

A stronger US dollar has reduced purchasing power and demand, putting downward pressure on prices and making US wheat less attractive compared to competitors from countries with weaker currencies, weakening its competitiveness in international markets.

Similarly, corn prices also fell 0.87% to $178.70 per ton, affected by the strengthening US dollar. As the greenback strengthens, North American grain’s competitiveness in the global market is weakened, putting pressure on prices. In addition, weak demand, especially from major customers such as China, has further exacerbated the situation. China, which is one of the leading grain importers, has remained quiet in transactions, contributing to the gloomy state of the corn market.

Not only that, Rafael Silveira, analyst at Safras & Mercado, also emphasized that the market is moving sideways this week waiting for the release of a new report from the US Department of Agriculture (USDA) next Friday (January 10), which will consolidate the harvest numbers in North America.

In the domestic market, on January 8, the offer price of South American corn to our country's ports did not change much. At Vung Tau port, the offer price of corn futures for delivery in January 2025 and February 2025 fluctuated around VND6,650/kg. At Cai Lan port, the offer price was VND50/kg higher than at Vung Tau port.

Prices of some other goods