Coffee prices have fallen across the board.

Báo Công thương•09/01/2025

At the close of trading yesterday, both Robusta and Arabica coffee prices fell by more than 1% as the market reacted to positive news regarding supply.

According to the Vietnam Commodity Exchange (MXV), selling pressure returned to dominate the global raw materials market yesterday (January 8). Notably, industrial raw materials led the decline, with 7 out of 9 commodities experiencing price drops. In addition, red dominated the agricultural sector, with many commodities such as wheat, corn, and soybeans also falling. At the close of trading, the MXV-Index fell slightly by 0.66% to 2,214 points.

Thị trường hàng hóa 9/1: Giá cà phê giảm hơn 1%

MXV-Index

Coffee prices are under pressure amid optimistic signals regarding supply.

At the close of yesterday's trading session, with the exception of rubber, the prices of all other commodities in the industrial raw materials group decreased. Specifically, Robusta and Arabica coffee prices both fell by more than 1% as the market received positive news regarding supply.

Industrial raw material price list

Specifically, according to a report by Embrapa Coffee, in the year from October 2023 to September 2024, total world coffee production reached 178 million bags, an increase of 5.82% compared to the same period of the previous year. Of this, Arabica coffee accounted for 102.2 million bags, representing 57.41% of total production; Robusta coffee accounted for 75.8 million bags, corresponding to 42.59% of the market share.

In 2024, Colombia, the world's second-largest producer of Arabica coffee, is estimated to increase for the second consecutive year due to favorable weather conditions in key coffee-growing regions. According to figures released yesterday by the Colombian Coffee Federation (FNC), total coffee production reached 13.9 million 60kg bags, a 23% increase compared to 2023 and 300,000 bags higher than previous forecasts. Regarding exports, Colombia exported 12.3 million 60kg bags in 2024, a 16% increase year-on-year. In December alone, the FNC reported Colombian coffee production at 1.79 million 60kg bags, a 47% increase year-on-year; exports reached 1.28 million 60kg bags, a 20% increase year-on-year.

In the domestic market, coffee prices in the Central Highlands and Southeast regions this morning (January 9th) were recorded at 120,000 - 121,000 VND/kg, a decrease of 600 - 1,000 VND/kg compared to yesterday. However, compared to the same period last year, coffee prices have nearly doubled.

In a similar development, March cotton futures fell 0.41%, pressured by the strengthening US dollar. The Dollar Index, a measure of the dollar's strength against six other major currencies, closed yesterday up 0.5% at 109.09 points, remaining at a two-year high. A stronger dollar increases investment costs for investors holding other currencies. At the same time, a stronger dollar reduces the competitiveness of US cotton, thereby decreasing buying interest in the market.

Red dominates the agricultural product price charts.

According to MXV, yesterday's trading session saw red dominating the agricultural commodities price chart. Notably, Chicago wheat led the decline, losing 1.15% yesterday, bringing the price down to $197 per ton. The main reason for the downward pressure on prices yesterday was the strengthening of the US dollar.

Agricultural product price list

The strengthening US dollar has reduced purchasing power and demand, thereby putting downward pressure on prices and making US wheat less attractive compared to competitors from countries with weaker currencies, thus weakening its competitiveness in the international market.

Similarly, corn prices also fell 0.87% to $178.7 per ton, also affected by the strengthening US dollar. When the greenback appreciates, the competitiveness of North American grains in the global market diminishes, putting pressure on prices. Furthermore, weak demand, especially from major customers like China, exacerbates the situation. China, a leading grain importer, remains quiet in transactions, contributing to the gloomy state of the corn market.

Furthermore, Rafael Silveira, an analyst at Safras & Mercado, also emphasized that the market is trading sideways this week awaiting the release of the new report from the US Department of Agriculture (USDA) next Friday (January 10), which will reinforce the harvest figures in North America.

On the domestic market, as of January 8th, the quoted prices for South American corn delivered to Vietnamese ports remained largely unchanged. At Vung Tau port, the quoted price for corn futures for January 2025 and February 2025 delivery fluctuated around 6,650 VND/kg. At Cai Lan port, the quoted price was 50 VND/kg higher than at Vung Tau port.

Prices of some other goods