Vietnam's coffee production is expected to decline sharply in the 2024-2025 crop year, reaching its lowest level in 13 years, mainly due to unfavorable weather conditions and the El Nino phenomenon causing drought and pest infestations.
Coffee prices today, October 12, 2024
World coffee prices continued to adjust downwards at the end of the week, after just one day of gains.
Domestic coffee prices traded at 113,300 – 114,100 VND/kg, an increase of 500 VND/kg compared to the previous day.
Coffee prices quickly fell back after a brief recovery as Brazilian coffee exports set a new record, despite ongoing logistical challenges. A report from the Brazilian Coffee Exporters Association (Cecafé) showed that in September, Brazil's coffee exports reached 4.46 million bags, valued at nearly $1.2 billion, a 33.3% increase in volume and an 84.5% increase in value compared to the same period last year.
In the first nine months of the year, Brazil exported a record 36.4 million bags of coffee, a 38.7% increase compared to the 26.2 million bags exported during the same period last year. Revenue from coffee exports also reached an all-time high of $8.45 billion, a 51.9% increase from the $5.55 billion recorded in September 2023.
Although coffee exports have performed well, Cecafé President Márcio Ferreira stated that the country's exports are still facing serious logistical challenges, particularly in the second half of the year, with a shortage of infrastructure and space at ports and a higher demand for containers for shipments, especially coffee, sugar, and cotton.
In reality, the logistics situation has remained unchanged, and Brazil continues to face persistent delays for export vessels, limited port opening hours, overloaded ports, and undeliverable goods, resulting in high costs for exporters in this South American country. Currently, Brazilian companies are seeking alternative solutions to maintain the flow of Brazilian coffee abroad.
Meanwhile, the sharp decline of the Brazilian Real against the US dollar has encouraged coffee producers to boost export sales. In addition, expected rainfall across Brazil's coffee belt this week is favorable for flowering, providing some short-term relief to market sentiment.
 |
| Domestic coffee prices on October 11th increased by 500 VND/kg in some key purchasing areas. (Source: Kitco) |
According to World & Vietnam , at the close of trading on October 11th, robusta coffee prices on the ICE Futures Europe London exchange showed mixed movements. The November 2024 delivery contract fell by $2, trading at $4,826/ton, while the January 2025 delivery contract rose by $2, trading at $4,680/ton. Trading volume was low.
Arabica coffee prices on the ICE Futures US New York exchange reversed course and fell, with the December 2024 contract declining by 3.70 cents to trade at 251.05 cents/lb. Meanwhile, the March 2025 contract fell by 3.7 cents to trade at 249.75 cents/lb. Average trading volume.
Domestic coffee prices on October 11th increased by 500 VND/kg in some key purchasing areas. Unit: VND/kg
(Source: giacaphe.com) |
The sharp increase in coffee prices stems from the growing demand for robusta coffee, while supply is scarce due to climate change. Robusta, Vietnam's main coffee variety with 94% of its planted area, previously typically cost only one-third to one-half the price of arabica. However, recently, robusta prices have even surpassed arabica. This has greatly benefited Vietnam despite a decrease in export volume.
Forecasts indicate that the Vietnamese coffee industry will face many challenges in the 2024-2025 crop year, particularly the impact of El Nino, which causes drought and pest infestations, with an expected 5-15% decrease in production compared to the previous season.
Simultaneously, a new trend is emerging: the demand for sustainably certified coffee is rapidly increasing globally. Consumers are increasingly favoring organic coffee and products that meet sustainability standards. International certifications such as UTZ, Fair Trade, Rainforest Alliance, and USDA Organic are playing an increasingly important role in ensuring sustainable and environmentally friendly production. These factors will contribute to the growth of the Vietnamese coffee market, while also requiring businesses in the industry to improve production quality to meet the stricter standards of the international market.
A report from Mordor Intelligence predicts that the global coffee market will grow from $132.13 billion in 2024 to $166.39 billion in 2029, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 4.72%. Increasing coffee consumption among young people, coupled with higher disposable income and urbanization, are the main drivers of global coffee demand.
Thus, Vietnam has great opportunities in the trend of increasing the value of coffee exports, but also needs to make efforts in applying sustainable farming methods in line with new development trends, in order to ensure the maintenance of long-term growth momentum.
![[Photo] Prime Minister Pham Minh Chinh holds a phone call with the CEO of Russia's Rosatom Corporation.](/_next/image?url=https%3A%2F%2Fvphoto.vietnam.vn%2Fthumb%2F1200x675%2Fvietnam%2Fresource%2FIMAGE%2F2025%2F12%2F11%2F1765464552365_dsc-5295-jpg.webp&w=3840&q=75)
Comment (0)