| Pepper price forecast September 11, 2024: Pepper prices soaring towards new peaks. Pepper price forecast September 12, 2024: Unfavorable weather conditions reduce purchasing power. |
The forecast for pepper prices on September 13, 2024 remains high. Amidst rising pepper prices and favorable market conditions, Vietnam's pepper export value is likely to exceed $1 billion this year. This marks the return of this commodity, often referred to as "black gold," after a six-year absence from the group of billion-dollar exports.
However, the amount of pepper exported from now until the end of the year may be lower than every year because the export volume in the past 8 months has exceeded the output of 170,000 tons of the 2024 crop.
According to the Vietnam Pepper and Spices Association (VPSA), the inventory from the 2023 crop carried over plus the import volume in 2024 of about 40,000 - 45,000 tons (including unofficial imports) shows that the export source from August until the end of the year will be lower than every year and until March 2025 when the 2025 crop is expected to be harvested.
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| Pepper price forecast September 13, 2024: Vietnam's export pepper prices surge, what is the market expecting? |
In the domestic market, today, September 12, 2024, pepper prices in key growing regions increased by 500-1,000 VND/kg, trading around 152,000-156,000 VND/kg. The highest purchase price was in Dak Nong and Dak Lak provinces at 156,000 VND/kg.
Accordingly, the price of pepper in Dak Lak is being purchased at 156,000 VND/kg, an increase of 500 VND/kg compared to yesterday. The price of pepper in Chu Se (Gia Lai) is being purchased at 153,000 VND/kg, stable compared to yesterday. The price of pepper in Dak Nong today is 156,000 VND/kg, an increase of 1,000 VND/kg compared to yesterday.
In Binh Phuoc, pepper price today remains at 152,000 VND/kg. In Ba Ria - Vung Tau, it is at 155,000 VND/kg, stable compared to yesterday.
Regarding world pepper prices, according to the International Pepper Association (IPC), at the close of the most recent trading session, IPC listed Indonesian Lampung black pepper at US$7,557/ton, up 0.2%, and Muntok white pepper at US$9,115/ton, up 0.21%.
The price of Brazilian ASTA 570 black pepper remained at USD 7,400/ton. The price of Malaysian ASTA black pepper was at USD 8,800/ton; the price of this country's ASTA white pepper reached USD 10,900/ton.
Vietnam's black pepper price is trading at 7,100 USD/ton for 500 g/l, up 7.04%; 550 g/l at 7,225 USD/ton, up 3.11%; white pepper price is at 10,150 USD/ton, up 8.37%.
A quick survey of pepper plantations in key areas such as Dak Nong, Dak Lak, Binh Phuoc, Ba Ria - Vung Tau, and Dong Nai revealed that while many pepper clusters are quite numerous, a significant number are sparse. Furthermore, the peppers are still very immature compared to the same period last year.
Demand for pepper on the world market remains very strong, especially from traditional markets. However, demand from China tends to fluctuate with price. When pepper prices rise, demand from this market may decrease.
With positive market signals and the efforts of businesses, the Vietnamese pepper industry is making steady progress. However, to maintain this growth momentum, businesses need to proactively adapt to market fluctuations, improve product quality, and expand their consumer markets.
In addition, businesses and pepper growers also need to pay attention to weather fluctuations such as droughts and storms, which can significantly affect pepper yield and quality. Trade policies and tariffs of importing countries can also impact pepper prices and consumption.
*This information is for reference only. Prices may vary depending on the time and location.
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