Mitigation, entering the new season, shortage of goods is certain?

Pepper price forecast August 22, 2024: Surpassing 140,000 VND, will the price increase cycle continue? Pepper price forecast August 23, 2024: Soaring to reach 145,000 VND/kg?

Pepper prices are forecast to fall sharply on August 25, 2024. The Vietnam Pepper and Spice Association (VPSA) reported that, as of the end of July, Vietnam's pepper exports were estimated at approximately 164,300 tons, worth $652 million; a decrease of 2.2% in volume but an increase of 41% in value compared to the same period in 2023.

The association also estimates that Vietnam's pepper production in 2024 will only reach about 170,000 tons, a 10% decrease compared to the previous year – the lowest level in the last 5 years.

Pepper price forecast for August 25th: Slight decrease, shortages are certain at the start of the new harvest season?

Currently, the supply shortage both domestically and internationally cannot be compensated for in the short term, creating conditions that keep pepper prices high, thereby generating large export revenues despite a decrease in export volume.

In the domestic market, today's pepper prices in the Southeast region (August 24, 2024) remained stable compared to yesterday, trading around 142,000 - 145,000 VND/kg, with the highest purchase price in Dak Lak and Dak Nong provinces at 145,000 VND/kg.

Accordingly, the price of pepper in Dak Lak remains unchanged at 145,000 VND/kg compared to yesterday. The price of pepper in Chu Se (Gia Lai) is stable at 144,000 VND/kg compared to yesterday. The price of pepper in Dak Nong today is recorded at 145,000 VND/kg, remaining stable compared to yesterday.

In the Southeast region, pepper prices today decreased slightly by 2,000 VND/kg compared to yesterday. Specifically, in Binh Phuoc, the price of pepper today fell to 142,000 VND/kg, down 2,000 VND/kg compared to yesterday. In Ba Ria - Vung Tau, the price remains stable at 144,000 VND/kg compared to yesterday.

In the international market, according to the International Pepper Association (IPC), at the end of the most recent trading session, the IPC listed the price of Indonesian Lampung black pepper at US$7,490/ton, up 0.16% from yesterday, while the price of Muntok white pepper fell to US$8,818/ton, also up 0.16%.

Brazilian ASTA 570 black pepper prices remained stable at US$6,300/ton. Malaysian ASTA black pepper prices continued to hold steady at US$8,500/ton; Malaysian ASTA white pepper prices reached US$10,400/ton.

Vietnamese black pepper is trading at US$5,800/ton for the 500 g/l grade; US$6,200/ton for the 550 g/l grade; and white pepper at US$8,500/ton.

Mr. Hoang Phuoc Binh, Permanent Vice Chairman of the Chu Se Pepper Association, said that unlike previous years, the pepper market this year has experienced too many unusual fluctuations. However, a shortage of goods is certain from now until the start of the new harvest season (around January).

The pepper harvesting season in Vietnam lasts from January to the end of April in the major growing regions. Some pepper-growing areas in Quang Tri province extend the harvest season until the end of June, but this is not a large number.

Some farmers shared that their pepper gardens did not bear fruit this season. However, others said they expect a bumper harvest. This is due to weather conditions.

However, to obtain accurate figures, it is necessary to conduct on-site visits to each region and commune within the key pepper-growing areas. Many believe that only at the end of the year, around November or December, can a fairly accurate forecast of production be made.

However, I believe this is not too important. Because even if the next pepper harvest is slightly better than the last one, it cannot compensate for the pepper growing area that has been lost recently and is still being lost. Therefore, the price increase cycle is expected to continue.

Domestic pepper prices on August 24 , 2024