Perspective of stock market analysis like a 'roller coaster', forecasting the scenario of the next session

chứng khoán - Ảnh 1. — The stock market is developing positively with a huge flow of money pouring in - Photo: QUANG DINH

The Vietnamese stock market opened the trading session on August 5 in an excited mood, continuing the recovery momentum from the previous session.

Stocks "roller coaster", fluctuation range up to 65 points

Right from the first minutes, VN-Index created a 19-point gap, with the index continuously expanding its growth momentum and quickly approaching the historical peak around 1,565 points.

The momentum for the increase came from large-cap stocks, especially those in the Vingroup ecosystem, the banking group, and Hoa Phat 's HPG shares. These were the main pillars that pushed the index up in the morning.

Statistics show that in the VN30 basket, there were 27 stocks increasing in price, of which MBB, VIC and TPB hit the ceiling, contributing to strengthening the upward momentum spreading across the market.

The green color from the blue-chip group quickly spread to mid-cap stocks, notably in industries such as livestock, real estate and securities.

Entering the afternoon session, VN-Index continued to climax, exploded and at one point recorded an increase of nearly 57 points compared to the reference.

However, when many stocks touched or surpassed their short-term peaks and achieved attractive returns, selling pressure suddenly spread strongly after 2 p.m. The market reversed quickly, but it did not take long for it to regain its "form".

In the last 15 minutes of the session, pillar stocks such as VIC, VHM, HPG and some banking stocks maintained green and played the role of "saving the market", helping the VN-Index recover slightly above the reference at the end of the session.

Part of the demand came from foreign investors. This group sold net in the morning session but suddenly reversed to net buy at the end of the session with a net value of more than VND870 billion. The stocks that were "collected" the most were HPG (+ VND1,083 billion), SHS (+ VND283 billion), MSN (+ VND140 billion), BID (+ VND140 billion)...

At the end of the trading day, the VN-Index closed at 1,547.15 points, up 18.96 points, equivalent to 1.24% compared to the previous session.

Trend Forecaster

Despite the volatile developments and strong fluctuations at times, the market still shows positive internal strength in general, with cash flow reaching a record high. VND 85,756 billion was "poured" into stocks today.

Speaking with Tuoi Tre Online, Mr. Duc Vu - Deputy Director of Vietcap Securities Analysis Department, said that VN-Index had a strong shaking session when approaching the old peak at 1,560 points set at the end of July.

"We believe this is likely to be a shake-out session at resistance, creating momentum for the official index to surpass the peak and move towards new historical highs in August," Mr. Vu predicted.

VCI gives this scenario a probability of 70%. Meanwhile, the negative scenario (probability of 30%) is when selling pressure takes over again after today's session, causing the VN-Index to breach the important support at 1,490 points. At that time, the market may continue to make a strong correction to the area around 1,400 points.

"In a positive scenario, we believe that large-cap stocks, especially financial stocks, will be the driving force for the index's growth as the market is looking towards the prospect of a stock market upgrade in September," Mr. Vu predicted.

Ms. Nguyen Phuong Nga - analyst of Vietcombank Securities (VCBS), recommends that investors continue to hold stocks that have not broken the uptrend; at the same time, consider realizing partial profits in stocks that have reached their target prices when there are recoveries in the following sessions.

With the index in the process of reaching the previous peak, there will often be strong fluctuations. Investors can temporarily reduce the leverage ratio to maintain purchasing power in order to seek new disbursement opportunities when the price level in the market is more stable in the coming sessions.

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BINH KHANH

Source: https://tuoitre.vn/goc-nhin-phan-tich-phien-chung-khoan-nhu-tau-luon-du-bao-kich-ban-phien-toi-20250805161718083.htm