Will "black gold" continue to increase in price?

Today's pepper prices (September 30th) are trading at 147,500 – 149,000 VND/kg, remaining stable with slight fluctuations in some regions. The global market also saw a slight increase in black and white pepper prices in Indonesia due to the drought in Brazil.

Today's pepper prices (September 30th) fluctuate between 147,500 and 149,000 VND/kg. (Screenshot)

So, where will pepper prices go tomorrow (October 1st)? Will "black gold" continue to rise or will there be signs of stagnation? To answer this question, we need to analyze the factors affecting pepper prices in the coming period.

Severe drought in Brazil, the country that supplies more than half of the world's black pepper, has significantly impacted this year's harvest. This has narrowed the global supply of black pepper, driving up prices. Meanwhile, Vietnam's exports of processed pepper have increased by over 50% compared to 2023, demonstrating that demand for pepper in the international market remains very high. The slight increase in black and white pepper prices in Indonesia is creating momentum for further price increases in Vietnam. These factors are putting upward pressure on the domestic pepper market.

However, pepper prices also face some downward pressure. The coffee harvest is expected to begin in October, which usually leads to intermediaries liquidating pepper stocks to trade for coffee. However, according to experts, this year, with lower inventory levels and the coffee harvest delayed until November, the liquidation of pepper stocks may be significantly reduced. In addition, pepper production in 2025 is projected to increase slightly, although the increase is insignificant, this is still a factor that could affect pepper prices in the long term. According to Nedspice, pepper exports in the fourth quarter of 2024 will be affected by the sale of stocks from previous years, along with the import of new pepper.

Pepper prices in the fourth quarter of 2024 may face pressure as the coffee harvest season approaches.

Based on the above analysis, it can be seen that pepper prices tomorrow (October 1st) will continue to face slight upward pressure, but the likelihood of significant fluctuations is not high. Ms. Hoang Thi Lien – President of VPSA – predicts that in the next 3-5 years, global pepper production will still not be sufficient to meet consumer demand. Mr. Hoang Phuoc Binh – Standing Vice President of the Chu Se Pepper Association (Gia Lai province) – believes that pepper prices are entering a new upward cycle after many years of "hitting rock bottom," and could reach a peak of 350,000-400,000 VND/kg within the next 10-15 years. The Import-Export Department ( Ministry of Industry and Trade ) forecasts that world pepper prices will remain high in the short term due to limited supply.

Overall, pepper prices tomorrow (October 1st) are likely to fluctuate slightly, possibly increasing slightly or remaining stable compared to today. However, in the long term, pepper prices will depend on many factors, including supply, demand, and the global economic situation. Therefore, consumers and investors need to closely monitor the market and update information regularly to make cautious investment decisions.

Source: https://congthuong.vn/du-bao-gia-tieu-ngay-mai-1102024-lieu-vang-den-co-tiep-tuc-tang-gia-349371.html