Vietnam shapes 'new position' amid cautious investment wave

Vietnam's mergers and acquisitions (M&A) market in 2025 will witness a decline in the number of transactions but will shift strongly to a selective trend when capital flows only focus on businesses with good foundations and high transparency. KPMG believes that international investors are returning to Vietnam but with more stringent standards. 2026 will be a period when the market will be clearly differentiated according to asset quality and the ability to create value after mergers.

Vietnam M&A market in 2025 enters the selection phase

Mr. Michael Dwyer, Head of Business Advisory at KPMG Vietnam (a company operating in the field of auditing and financial consulting), commented that the trend of "seeking quality" will shape the market in 2026, in the context of Vietnam maintaining its attractiveness to investors thanks to its stable economy and long-term growth prospects.

Mr. Michael Dwyer, Head of Deal Advisory at KPMG Vietnam, presented a report at the M&A Forum 2025.

According to Mr. Dwyer, this change reflects a reshaped investment cycle after the boom period. Investors are not only looking at opportunities from the asset perspective but also require management capabilities, operational efficiency and long-term development strategy. He believes that the Vietnamese market is entering a “rebalancing” phase when small deals are declining but large strategic transactions are appearing more, reflecting the natural screening of capital flows.

KPMG Vietnam's "M&A Market Overview - Vietnam 10T2025" report noted that the Vietnamese M&A market continues to maintain its attractiveness with 218 deals and a total announced value of about 2.3 billion USD in the first 10 months of 2025. KPMG assessed this as a stable level in the context of global M&A activities slowing down due to many uncertain factors. The average transaction size reached 29.4 million USD, lower than the sharp increase in 2024 but reflecting the normal market level.

Mr. Michael Dwyer said that the market has entered a period of “more selective” as investors demand higher transparency, operational efficiency and development direction of businesses. “We see a shift to selective transactions, with an emphasis on asset quality, operational capacity and transparency in reporting,” Mr. Dwyer said.

KPMG data also shows that there is strong differentiation by industry. Large-value transactions in 2025 are concentrated in real estate, materials, healthcare and finance - areas with stable market demand and the ability to generate long-term cash flow. Many large deals demonstrate this trend, such as the acquisition of Phuong Dong Real Estate Company worth 365 million USD, the restructuring transaction of Hyosung Vina for 277 million USD or Ares's investment of 150 million USD in the Medlatec healthcare system.

According to Mr. Dwyer, international investors continue to maintain their interest in the Vietnamese market, especially in strategic and highly transparent deals. He believes that the return of regional funds and corporations is the result of a more thorough due diligence process, rather than the acceleration of capital flows as in the pre-pandemic period.

KPMG assesses that Vietnam’s M&A market has entered a phase of “selection stability”. Instead of being active in terms of transaction volume, the market now emphasizes quality, tighter transaction structures and higher transparency requirements. This is a shift in line with the economic context of 2025 and will create a foundation for a more sustainable growth cycle in the period 2026 - 2030.

M&A will be quality, transparent and reasonably priced

Based on these clear screening movements, KPMG also forecasts the next phase, highlighting trends that will have a direct impact on the market from 2026.

Mr. Michael Dwyer emphasized that Vietnam's M&A market will continue to be influenced by cautious capital flows.

Analyzing the trend in 2026, Mr. Michael Dwyer emphasized that the Vietnamese M&A market will continue to be influenced by cautious capital flows with stricter criteria for evaluating businesses. “Investors will focus on businesses with good financial foundations, clear business models and long-term development strategies. This will be the focus of M&A activities in the coming time,” Mr. Dwyer commented.

According to the report, four key trends will shape the market in 2026. First, investors prioritize sectors that can generate stable cash flows, including healthcare, education , logistics, waste treatment, and energy. KPMG believes that these are sectors with real growth demand and are less dependent on economic cycle fluctuations.

Second, the “flight to quality” trend becomes clearer, when businesses with management capacity, transparent finances and clear expansion strategies are prioritized in M&A deals.

Third, the market is tilted towards the buy side. After a period of strong growth, corporate valuations have been adjusted more reasonably, in line with investor expectations in the context of high global interest rates. KPMG forecasts that transaction mechanisms such as “earn-out”, risk sharing and sell-side financing will continue to be applied more commonly to narrow the gap in corporate value expectations.

Fourth, many deals that were delayed in the 2022-2024 period could be restarted in 2026, especially in real estate, energy and industry, sectors that are under pressure to restructure to improve efficiency.

KPMG estimates that the 2026-2030 period will witness an increase in “second round” deals as businesses seek strategic partners to expand, restructure or upgrade technology.

Currently, Vietnam’s advantages in the supply chain, combined with legal reforms in investment, land and energy, are seen as factors that create new sources of deals. In addition, the level of interest of international investors in Vietnam will continue to be maintained if the legal environment is improved and businesses increase financial transparency.

Mr. Michael Dwyer assessed that Vietnam is creating a foundation for a new transaction cycle thanks to the shift to selective deals, requiring higher transparency standards. Accordingly, raising governance standards and improving financial capacity will determine the ability to attract M&A capital flows in the coming years.

Source: https://baotintuc.vn/kinh-te/viet-nam-dinh-hinh-vi-the-moi-giua-lan-song-dau-tu-than-trong-20251209200700139.htm