Supply concerns push Thai rice prices to 4-month high

Asian rice market

Photo caption — Rice is displayed for sale at a supermarket in Bangkok, Thailand. Photo: AFP/TTXVN

Thai rice prices rose to their highest in more than four months this week on supply concerns stemming from flooding in the south, while prices for the Indian variety slid to near a one-month low.

According to a trader in Bangkok, Thai 5% broken rice was quoted at $375 a tonne this week, up from $370 a tonne last week due to flooding. This is the highest price recorded since July 24. The trader explained that the price increase only applied to Thai rice in the southern region due to flooding there.

In India, the 5% broken parboiled variety fell to $347-$354 a tonne this week from $348-$356 last week, the lowest in nearly a month. The 5% broken white variety was quoted between $340-$345 a tonne. Demand for Indian rice saw a slight improvement this week as prices fell in line with the rupee’s slide to a record low. BV Krishna Rao, president of the Indian Rice Exporters Association, said the weaker rupee was giving exporters room to lower prices to make them more competitive in attracting demand.

Meanwhile, in Vietnam, 5% broken rice was offered at $365-$370 per tonne, up from $359-$363 a tonne a week earlier, marking the highest level since early November 2025.

Elsewhere, domestic rice prices in Bangladesh remain high despite ample inventories and bumper harvests. The country has imported 1.437 million tonnes in the 2024-25 crop year and another 500,000 tonnes between July and November, but prices have shown no signs of cooling down.

US agricultural market

Chicago soybean futures edged lower on Friday and were headed for their first weekly decline in eight weeks, as markets remained cautious amid uncertainty over how much U.S. soybeans China will actually buy under the trade truce.

This session, the price of soybeans in the nearest futures contract on the Chicago Board of Trade (CBOT) decreased by 0.3% to 11.165 USD/bushel (1 bushel of wheat/soybean = 27.2 kg; 1 bushel of corn = 25.4 kg).

The US Department of Agriculture (USDA) recently reported net exports of 1,248,500 tonnes of US soybeans in the week ending October 30, including 232,000 tonnes to China. This is China's first purchase since the US's 2025 harvest.

However, the total purchase volume is still far below the 12 million ton target previously mentioned by senior US officials. US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent also pushed back the target date this week from the end of December 2025 to the end of February 2026.

Similar to soybeans, wheat and corn prices also cooled as abundant global supplies overshadowed the boost from the vibrant US corn export activity.

CBOT wheat futures fell 0.5% to $5.375 a bushel, while corn futures fell 0.3% to $4.46 a bushel.

Statistics Canada recently reported that the country's total wheat production reached nearly 40 million tonnes, surpassing market expectations. This data shows that global supplies are very abundant, thereby putting pressure on prices.

Meanwhile, on December 5, the Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations (FAO) also raised its forecast for world grain production and inventories this crop year to a record high.

Still, Chicago corn futures held near a six-month high hit earlier this week, supported by robust export activity and concerns about cold weather hampering shipments of U.S. grain.

World coffee market

In the international market, coffee prices have had mixed developments but the general trend is a slight increase. The London exchange recorded the price of robusta coffee for delivery in January 2026 increasing by 16 USD to 4,331 USD/ton, the March 2026 contract increased by 32 USD to 4,244 USD/ton. At the New York exchange, the price of arabica coffee for delivery in December 2025 increased by 5.45 US cents/lb to 409.2 US cents/lb; the March 2026 contract increased by 3.7 US cents/lb to 376.15 US cents/lb (1 lb = 0.4535 kg).

Despite the increase, Robusta coffee prices are still hovering around a 1.5-week low as the market continues to monitor the impact of storms and heavy rains in Vietnam. Bad weather in recent days has slowed down harvesting activities and increased the risk of fruit drop, raising concerns about a lower output this season. Traders are currently divided into two views: one side believes that output can stabilize thanks to late-season supply, while the other predicts that output could fall by 5-10% depending on the region. The conflicting views cause prices to fluctuate constantly according to new information from the raw material regions.

For arabica, prices were supported by a strong rally in the Brazilian real, which hit a two-week high. The stronger local currency has kept farmers from selling, helping to keep arabica prices stable. Brazilian coffee exports to the U.S. have been slow despite the removal of tariffs, but are expected to improve as early as 2026 as domestic supplies stabilize.

In the domestic market, coffee prices on December 6 increased slightly again by 400 - 500 VND/kg, fluctuating from 103,300 - 104,000 VND/kg in key areas of the Central Highlands.

Specifically, today's coffee price in Dak Lak province increased slightly by 400 VND/kg compared to yesterday, to 104,000 VND/kg. Dak Lak is also the locality with the highest coffee price in the country today. Similarly, today's coffee price in Gia Lai province is trading at 103,600 VND/kg, up 400 VND/kg. In Lam Dong province, the coffee price increased by 500 VND/kg, trading at 103,300 VND/kg.

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