ASEAN+3 emerges stronger amid growing global uncertainty

Recently, the ASEAN+3 Macroeconomic Research Office released the "ASEAN+3 Financial Stability 2025" Report and the "ASEAN+3 Regional Economic Outlook Update October 2025" Report.

ASEAN+3 Macroeconomic Research Office forecasts for GDP growth and inflation of ASEAN+3 economies in 2025 and 2026. (Source: AMRO)

ASEAN+3 recovers steadily

The report highlights the strong resilience of the ASEAN+3 region in the face of increased uncertainties, mainly due to changes in US trade policy and geopolitical tensions.

Accordingly, growth in the ASEAN+3 region is forecast to reach 4.1% in 2025 and 3.8% in 2026, higher than the July forecast, thanks to strong performance in the first half of 2025 and higher-than-expected export momentum.

In addition, market pressure has gradually eased since peaking in April, after US President Donald Trump announced reciprocal tariffs.

“While intra-regional trade and domestic demand are increasingly becoming important growth drivers for ASEAN+3, the region remains deeply linked to the global financial system and is therefore vulnerable to external shocks,” said Dong Ha, chief economist of the ASEAN+3 Macroeconomic Research Office.

However, expert Dong Ha assessed that the region's financial system remains stable, although there are still some vulnerabilities.

Among them, export-oriented businesses – especially small ones with high dependence on US demand – could face profit pressure amid changing trade dynamics.

Inflationary pressures in the US may persist due to higher import tariffs, complicating the US Federal Reserve's monetary policy and potentially leading to spillover effects to other parts of the world .

Additionally, increased uncertainty surrounding the dollar’s ​​“safe haven” status could further fragment the global financial system.

ASEAN+3 is a cooperation mechanism between the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) and three Northeast Asian countries: Japan, South Korea and China.

ASEAN+3 is estimated to account for about 28% of the world's population and contribute about 27% of global GDP in 2024.

This shows that ASEAN+3 is not only a densely populated region but also a giant economic hub, demonstrating the strategic importance of this region in the global trade and supply chain.

Coping with Headwinds

Despite the challenges, ASEAN+3 economies are resilient to external headwinds. Well-calibrated policies and solid economic fundamentals – including sound banking systems, deepening financial markets, ample foreign exchange reserves and flexible policy space – have been key.

With inflation low and expectations stable in most economies, central banks can maintain loose monetary policy to support growth.

At the same time, prudent macroeconomic tools, together with foreign exchange and capital flow management measures, will become additional layers of protection to maintain financial stability and minimize external spillovers.

However, the ASEAN+3 Macroeconomic Research Office stressed that support measures need to be precisely targeted and deployed cautiously to preserve policy space in the context of heightened external risks.

The ASEAN+3 region is undergoing deeper structural transformation. Most notably, the rapid digitalization of financial services presents significant opportunities for a more inclusive and efficient financial environment, while also posing new challenges to financial stability.

“The digitalization of the banking sector is reshaping the market structure, opening up new avenues for integration, but at the same time changing the nature and distribution of financial stability risks. Policymakers therefore need to adopt a multi-pronged strategy that encourages innovation while managing risks in line with the level of development of each market segment,” said Runchana Pongsaparn, Head of the Financial Surveillance Team of the ASEAN+3 Macroeconomic Research Office.

As ASEAN+3 responds to near-term uncertainties, the ASEAN+3 Macroeconomic Research Office highlights the importance of strengthening policy frameworks, enhancing transparency, and expanding domestic markets and financial buffers to mitigate spillover risks from external shocks.

“With coordinated action and deeper financial integration and cooperation, ASEAN+3 can turn today’s challenges into tomorrow’s opportunities, and emerge stronger, more connected, and more resilient,” Mr. Dong Ha concluded.

Source: https://baoquocte.vn/asean3-vuon-len-manh-me-hon-trong-boi-canh-bat-on-toan-cau-gia-tang-331024.html