Supply decreases, pig price expected to increase

Mr. Nguyen Van Trong, former Deputy Director of the Department of Animal Husbandry (now the Department of Animal Husbandry and Veterinary Medicine - Ministry of Agriculture and Environment ), Vice President of the Vietnam Association of Farms and Agricultural Enterprises, had an interview with reporters of the Industry and Trade Newspaper on this issue.

Pork supply decreases, pig price expected to increase before Lunar New Year 2026

- In the past 11 months alone, Vietnam has had to cull more than 1.23 million pigs due to African swine fever, not to mention the damage caused by floods. How do you assess the possibility of a pork shortage before the Lunar New Year 2026 and its impact on market prices?

Mr. Nguyen Van Trong: The supply of pork for this year's Lunar New Year is likely to decrease, not only due to the impact of prolonged rain and floods but also due to diseases in the pig herd. Previously, the price of live pigs remained low, causing many farmers to hesitate to re-herd. At the same time, fearing natural disasters, many people sold early to reduce risks, leading to a significant decrease in the total herd.

*On December 8, the price of live pigs fluctuated between 58,000 - 61,000 VND/kg, depending on the region, this price increased by 7,000 - 10,000 VND/kg compared to the end of October 2025.*

In fact, the supply in the North Central and South Central regions has decreased quite sharply. Even the northern provinces, after the floods during the Mid-Autumn Festival, recorded a similar decrease. Therefore, although localities reported that the number of pigs remained at a certain level, there is reason to worry that the actual number may not meet expectations.

Pork consumption usually increases about a month before Tet, mainly for processing. However, the amount of imported pork is also quite large. According to the Customs Department ( Ministry of Finance ), in the first 10 months of 2025, Vietnam imported 811,300 tons of meat and meat products, worth 1.62 billion USD, up 15.3% in volume and 14.4% in value compared to the first 10 months of 2024.

Of which, Vietnam's imports of fresh, chilled or frozen pork in the first 10 months of 2025 reached 159.4 thousand tons, worth 358.26 million USD, up 95.7% in volume, up 90.8% in value over the same period in 2024; the average import price was at 2,240 USD/ton, down 2.7% over the first 10 months of 2024.

However, the imported pork is mainly for processing. This helps to reduce the pressure on domestic supply. However, pork prices are still likely to increase due to the gap between supply and demand. Consumers now have many alternative food options, but domestic supply still plays a key role. The key issue is the sow herd.

The Department of Animal Husbandry and Veterinary Medicine (Ministry of Agriculture and Environment) reported that the total pig herd is currently around 3 million, but after storms and epidemics, the actual number may be lower, affecting the ability to supply breeds for herd restoration. The positive point is that large livestock enterprises still maintain a stable herd size and have plans to reserve goods for Tet, helping to ensure that the market does not suffer from excessive shortages.

- Sir, with the current popular price of live pigs at 62 - 63 thousand VND/kg, do you think this is a reasonable price for farmers, distributors and consumers? What price level can farmers make a profit?

Mr. Nguyen Van Trong: Currently, the price of live pigs on the market is commonly at 62 - 63 thousand VND/kg. This is considered a harmonious price for all three stages including breeders, distributors and consumers. If the price falls below 60 thousand VND/kg, breeders, especially small households, will face many difficulties. Because before that, they had to buy piglets at a price of up to 2.5 million VND/pig. Although the price of animal feed has not fluctuated much recently, the cost of piglets is too high, making the profit calculation become stressful.

*Mr. Nguyen Van Trong, Vice President of the Vietnam Farm and Agricultural Enterprise Association. Photo: Hong Tham/NNVN*

At a price below 60,000 VND/kg, small-scale farmers and farms that have to buy breeds have almost no profit. Meanwhile, chain-based livestock enterprises have the advantage of scale, helping production costs to be only about 52,000 VND/kg, so they still ensure profits. In other words, a price of about 60,000 VND/kg or more is enough to help most small-scale farmers and farms make a profit and maintain herd restoration.

Imports and herd restoration help stabilize supply and CPI

- Sir, with the forecast that the price of live pigs may increase to about 70 thousand VND/kg, how do you assess this possibility and its impact on the CPI index? In addition, how is the role of imports and the ability to restore the herd reflected in balancing the supply?

Mr. Nguyen Van Trong: The price of live pigs is likely to increase to about 70 thousand VND/kg if import sources encounter difficulties, it is entirely possible that the price will rise to this level. The reason is that after floods and epidemics, domestic supply has decreased significantly, while consumption demand before Tet usually increases by 10-15%, creating pressure on prices.

At a recent meeting of the Ministry of Agriculture and Environment, Deputy Minister Phung Duc Tien also stated that the price of live pigs may increase, but not to the extent that it will affect the Lunar New Year market. However, he emphasized the need to ensure pork supply to stabilize the CPI. In my opinion, this statement is completely correct. Price stabilization is necessary to avoid impacting the CPI.

Although there are opinions that the amount of imported meat in recent times is large, in reality it is not. The market is quite open, and this year, Vietnam is expected to import about 200,000 tons of pork. This number only accounts for about 5-6% of the total domestic pork production, expected to be more than 5 million tons, so it does not have a big impact on the market. On the contrary, imports contribute to balancing supply and demand, limiting price fluctuations and reducing pressure on consumers, especially before Tet.

In addition, floods affect many other livestock industries such as poultry and aquaculture. However, these groups have the ability to rebuild their herds faster. As for pigs, the rearing period must be from 120 to 140 days before they can be sold, so it is impossible to rebuild the herd in time for Tet demand. As for poultry, especially industrial chickens, the rearing cycle is only 35 to 40 days, so the supply is more easily compensated. Therefore, the possibility of pork prices increasing too high is unlikely. However, a level of about 70 thousand VND/kg is possible and this level has not yet created a significant impact on the CPI.

The price of 70,000 VND/kg is considered not too high to cause concern and can still meet market demand. Although consumers suffer a loss compared to producers, in reality, farmers do not benefit too much; the main benefit is still in the intermediary stage. According to observations, the price of 60,000 - 63,000 VND/kg is considered the most suitable.

In recent days, when surveyed at the market, many traders said that the price of each slaughtered pig has increased by about 3 million VND. However, consumption is still decreasing, because people in some areas, especially in the Central region, have to prioritize other essential necessities. This shows that despite the decrease in demand, the price of pigs is still increasing, reflecting the lack of abundant supply.

In addition, this phenomenon is also due to farmers starting to keep pigs to prepare for Tet. Previously, during the period of continuous rain and floods, they had to sell early, but when the situation stabilized, they chose to keep the pigs and planned to sell them about a month before Tet. This helped them to sell larger quantities and at higher prices, instead of selling early at low prices.

Thank you!

On December 8, the price of live pigs fluctuated between 58 - 61 thousand VND/kg, depending on the region, this price increased from 7 - 10 thousand VND/kg compared to the end of October. In November 2025, the price of live pigs nationwide tended to decrease compared to October 2025, fluctuating between 49 - 54 thousand VND/kg.

Source: https://congthuong.vn/nguon-cung-giam-gia-lon-hoi-du-bao-tang-433796.html