Department of Animal Husbandry 'reveals' the reason for the low price of live pigs in 2023

The Department of Animal Husbandry (Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Development) recently issued a report assessing pig farming in 2023, noting that the price of live pigs sold for slaughter in the past year has continuously decreased, at times falling below the production cost, causing farmers to have no profit, or even suffer losses.

Pig farms and businesses will have a difficult year in 2023 as pig prices drop

High supply, weak purchasing power

According to the Department of Animal Husbandry, in 2023, pig farming will still be the main livestock sector, accounting for over 62% of the total output of fresh meat of all livestock. Pig farming has developed steadily in the context of household farming shifting strongly to semi-industrial, linking with businesses; chain-based farm farming, bio-security, disease safety and increased application of advanced technology.

By the end of 2023, the total pig herd is estimated to reach over 26.3 million heads (not including about more than 4 million piglets with their mothers), an increase of 4.2% over the same period in 2022. Accordingly, 2023 is the year with the highest total pig herd in the past 5 years. In the period 2019 - 2023, the average growth rate per head of pig was 6.94%/year. It is estimated that in 2023, the total output of live pigs for slaughter will reach 4.8 million tons, an increase of 7.2% over the same period in 2022.

According to the Department of Animal Husbandry, the supply of pork from businesses and farms increased, especially in September - November. Meanwhile, people's purchasing power for food decreased compared to before, causing the price of live pigs to continuously decrease.

In 2023, the price of live pigs is quite consistent compared to 2022 in terms of monthly fluctuations. Notably, since March, the price of live pigs has always been lower than the price in 2022 (except for June 2023). Notably, in the first week of December 2023, the average price of live pigs nationwide was 48,000 VND/kg - the lowest price in 2023. This price is about 13,000 VND/kg lower than the time when the pig price was highest in the year (July 2023) with the average price nationwide of 61,000 VND/kg, even in some northern provinces at that time the highest price was 68,000 VND/kg).

Although, the price of live pigs later increased slightly by 1,000 - 3,000 VND/kg, bringing the average price in December to 49,000 VND/kg, it was still 3,000 VND/kg lower than the same period in 2022. Meanwhile, the production cost of 1 kg of live pigs fluctuates from 45,000 - 52,000 VND/kg, with this price, farmers have almost no profit, even loss.

Imports of meat and by-products increased sharply, while exports were insignificant.

The Department of Animal Husbandry believes that one of the factors that makes it difficult for domestic pig prices to increase is the continuous increase in imported pork and pork by-products in the second half of 2023. In 2023, Vietnam imported about 116,000 tons of pork, accounting for 3% of total pork consumption. In addition, Vietnam imported about 122,450 tons of edible pork by-products, an increase of 76.7% compared to 2022.

According to the General Department of Customs ( Ministry of Finance ) and the Ministry of Industry and Trade, fresh, chilled or frozen pork is the most exported. In the 11 months of 2023, Vietnam exported 9,900 tons, worth 57.85 million USD, up 4.6% in volume and 29.2% in value over the same period in 2022.

Currently, Hong Kong is Vietnam's largest pork import market, accounting for 87.43% in volume and 93.8% in value of total fresh, chilled or frozen pork exports.

In 2023, Vietnam's pork and pork product exports will not be commensurate with its annual production output. Currently, the amount of pork exported is still too small compared to the total output. The main export products are still suckling pigs and growing pigs to the Hong Kong market, not products that Vietnam is producing on a large scale such as frozen meat or fresh meat.

Pig farming in China is almost unprofitable.

According to a report by the US Department of Agriculture (USDA), the global pig farming industry will face many challenges in 2023, with a rapid decline in herds occurring in many countries. Pork prices have continuously decreased since the beginning of July 2023 due to slow import demand in Asian countries, while supply in some exporting countries is abundant.

USDA estimates that by the end of 2023, the total world pig herd will reach 769.7 million heads (down 2% year-on-year) due to the gradual decrease in herd restoration demand and high inventories at the beginning of the year; global pork output is expected to reach 114.8 million tons, up 0.3% compared to 2022.

In China, the supply of pork is abundant, while consumption is lower than in 2022, causing pork prices to fall, the meat market is under pressure... so pig farming is almost unprofitable. USDA estimates that the structure of pork production in countries around the world is that China accounts for the most with 48%; the European Union 20%; the US 11%; Brazil 4%; Russia 4%; Vietnam 3% and the output of other countries accounts for 10%.

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