Stable ahead of new harvest, prices likely to increase slightly?

The Vietnamese pepper market is in the final stages of the 2024 harvest season, with stable trading prices at 143,000 – 145,500 VND/kg. However, given the complex developments in both domestic and international markets, pepper prices are likely to increase slightly in the coming months.

According to reports, pepper prices today, October 14, 2024, remained stable compared to yesterday. The lowest price was recorded in Binh Phuoc and Chu Se (Gia Lai) provinces at 143,000 VND/kg, and the highest was in Ba Ria - Vung Tau at 145,500 VND/kg.

World pepper prices are also showing positive signs. At the close of the most recent trading session, the International Pepper Association (IPC) listed Indonesian Lampung black pepper at US$6,732/ton, up 0.31%, and Muntok white pepper at US$9,002/ton, also up 0.31%. This reflects continued high global demand for pepper, providing impetus for a slight increase in domestic prices.

However, domestic pepper supply is facing many challenges. Pepper production in 2024 is estimated to decrease by 10% compared to 2023, to only about 170,000 tons – the lowest level in the last 5 years. The area planted with pepper is shrinking due to farmers switching crops, while the global pepper market is short of nearly 100,000 tons compared to demand.

Pepper price forecast for tomorrow, October 15, 2024: Stable ahead of the new harvest season, with the possibility of a slight increase?

Furthermore, the impact of the El Niño climate change phenomenon at the beginning of the year negatively affected pepper cultivation and maintenance for farmers. This was followed by the La Niña phenomenon, which also significantly impacted farmers' morale, especially given the current high prices of durian and coffee. Therefore, replanting pepper remains unattractive.

Vietnam's 2025 pepper harvest is expected to begin in February 2025, 1-2 months later than in previous years due to the prolonged drought. This will further restrict Vietnam's pepper supply and drive up prices in the near future.

Furthermore, although China is Vietnam's largest pepper import market, imports decreased sharply in the first nine months of 2024, but global pepper consumption remains high.

Given limited supply, high demand, and a slight upward trend in global pepper prices, domestic pepper prices are likely to increase slightly in the coming months.

However, to accurately predict future pepper price trends, it is necessary to closely monitor domestic and international market developments, especially weather conditions, harvest yields, consumption demand, and trade policies of other countries.

Source: https://congthuong.vn/du-bao-gia-tieu-ngay-mai-15102024-on-dinh-truc-them-vu-thu-hoach-moi-gia-co-kha-nang-tang-nhe-352424.html