Silver prices plummeted by more than 7% after a series of sharp increases.
According to the Vietnam Commodity Exchange (MXV), metals were the focus of attention for domestic and international investors, leading the overall market downturn. Silver prices fell sharply by more than 7% – the steepest decline since early October – dropping below the psychological threshold of $50 per ounce due to massive profit-taking amid a strengthening US dollar and weakening industrial consumption prospects. At the close of trading, the December silver futures contract settled at $47.7 per ounce.
Analysts believe this correction is inevitable after a prolonged rally, especially as new data shows slowing industrial demand. In China, which accounts for about 40% of global industrial silver demand, GDP growth in the third quarter reached only 4.8%, down from 5.2% in the previous quarter. Although industrial production in September increased by 6.5% year-on-year, the economy is considered increasingly dependent on exports, threatening silver demand in the electronics, solar panel, and green energy sectors. At the same time, the US dollar index (DXY) rose 0.35% to 98.93 points – its third consecutive day of gains – making the precious metal less attractive to investors holding other currencies.
Despite a sharp short-term correction, the long-term outlook for silver remains positive thanks to a solid supply and demand foundation. The market is projected to continue its deficit for the fifth consecutive year as demand from renewable energy and electric vehicles remains strong. Furthermore, geopolitical risks and the possibility of the US Federal Reserve (Fed) easing monetary policy are expected to reactivate safe-haven buying. Investors are currently watching the US Consumer Price Index (CPI) data, scheduled for release on the evening of October 24th (Vietnam time), a key factor in shaping interest rate expectations amidst the ongoing US government shutdown.
In Vietnam, the price of 999 silver also fell by more than 4% on the morning of October 22nd, dropping below the 1.7 million VND/ounce mark that had been maintained for the past half month. Currently, the price of silver in Hanoi ranges from 1.626 to 1.656 million VND/ounce (buy - sell), while in Ho Chi Minh City it is 1.628 to 1.662 million VND/ounce. Due to its almost complete dependence on imports, domestic silver prices usually fluctuate in parallel with the world market.
Coffee is going against the trend amidst supply shortages.
In contrast to the gloomy performance of precious metals, world coffee prices continued to rise as supply from Brazil – the world's largest producer and exporter – plummeted. At the close of trading on October 21st, the December Arabica contract rose 1.85% to $9,117 per ton, while the November Robusta contract increased 2.3% to $4,620 per ton.
According to the Brazilian Coffee Exporters Association (Cecafé), as of October 21st, only over 2.1 million bags of coffee had been cleared through customs, and the projected volume for the entire month is only 3.8-4 million bags, 20% lower than the same period last year. Furthermore, tariff barriers continue to hinder trade flows between Brazil and the US, forcing roasters to seek temporary supplies on the ICE exchange, causing Arabica coffee inventories to fall to their lowest level in 19 months (467,110 bags), while Robusta inventories hit a three-month low of only 6,152 lots.
In the domestic market, weather conditions are also creating pressure as tropical storm Fengshen moves into the central region, forecasting prolonged heavy rain in the Central Highlands – the country's key coffee-growing area. Continuous rain for the next 7-10 days could increase the risk of flooding and landslides, affecting harvesting progress.
Domestic trading activity is currently sluggish, with purchasing agents mainly waiting for the main harvest season. This morning (October 22nd), the purchase price of bulk green coffee beans in the Central Highlands and Southeast regions increased by 2,000 VND/kg compared to yesterday, reaching 115,000 - 116,000 VND/kg.
MXV believes that the upward trend in coffee prices is likely to continue in the short term as supply factors have not yet shown significant improvement. Brazilian exports are forecast to continue slowing in November due to unfavorable weather and tariff barriers. In addition, the risk of prolonged heavy rains in the Central Highlands could affect harvesting progress and coffee bean quality, thereby increasing pressure on global supply. However, MXV suggests that the price increase margin may narrow as the peak harvesting season approaches, especially if new supplies from Vietnam and Indonesia are brought to market soon.
Source: https://baotintuc.vn/thi-truong-tien-te/gia-bac-lao-doc-caphe-di-nguoc-dong-mxvindex-giam-hon-20-diem-20251022085522595.htm
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