Domestic consumption increased sharply
According to the report of the Vietnam Steel Association, the production and consumption of finished steel products in the country are showing signs of improvement. Specifically, in May 2025, finished steel output reached 2.79 million tons, up 8% over the same period last year; consumption output reached 2.88 million tons, up sharply by 13%.
Accumulated in the first 5 months of 2025, finished steel production reached 13 million tons, up 9% over the same period in 2024; total consumption reached 13.22 million tons, up 11%.
According to FPT Securities Joint Stock Company (FPTS), the domestic construction steel market continues to maintain a stable production and consumption rhythm, despite negative developments in the regional and global markets. In the context of export difficulties due to trade defense measures from many countries, domestic demand has become the main growth driver.
Similarly, a report by SSI Securities Corporation shows that some of the driving forces behind the sharp increase in domestic steel consumption in the first half of this year are the recovery of the domestic real estate market. Accordingly, it will create a large source of construction projects for 2025, promoting the consumption of construction materials, including steel products. Public investment continues to accelerate, many large infrastructure projects such as: Terminal T3 of Tan Son Nhat Airport, Long Thanh International Airport... are being implemented quickly, promoting the demand for construction steel and steel pipes.
In the first half of 2025, registered and disbursed foreign direct investment (FDI) continued to increase, boosting demand for construction materials for factories and warehouses. Vietnam announced preliminary tariffs for two anti-dumping measures on HRC from China (March) and galvanized steel from China and South Korea (April), creating a competitive advantage for domestic steel producers.
The Government is promoting the private sector to supply specialized steel for key infrastructure projects in the spirit of Resolution 68-NQ/TW, opening up opportunities for steel enterprises to raise production levels to higher-tech products in the value chain.
Steel price recovery expected
Master Vu Thi Dao (Institute of Economics and Finance, Academy of Finance, Ministry of Finance ) commented that the steel market is sending positive signals thanks to stable production, good domestic consumption and expectations that steel prices will recover in the near future.
As for Hoa Phat Group, from the end of 2025, the designed capacity will reach 16 million tons/year, mainly focusing on hot rolled coil steel and high-quality steel for the mechanical engineering industry. The stable supply from Hoa Phat is expected to contribute to stabilizing the domestic market.
Regarding the domestic steel market outlook for the second half of 2025, SSI's report stated that the domestic consumption channel can maintain positive growth thanks to the recovery of the real estate market and increased public investment. Accordingly, the steel industry's profit outlook remains positive.
Furthermore, to protect domestic steel producers from the "storm" of cheap steel, on July 4, 2025, the Ministry of Industry and Trade announced the imposition of anti-dumping tax on HRC, effective for a maximum of 5 years, strengthening the protection barrier and contributing to expanding profit margins for domestic producers.
Regarding steel prices, according to SSI, it is expected to take time to recover due to the slow recovery of the Chinese market.
Meanwhile, according to Master Vu Thi Dao, the domestic steel market has been on a downward trend with the world market since 2022. As for Hoa Phat steel, as of the end of June 2025, the price of Hoa Phat brand CB240 rolled steel decreased in most brands by 250 - 310 VND/kg compared to the price at the end of May 2025.
According to FPTS, domestic steel prices remain low, while prices of other construction materials have increased significantly compared to early 2025. As of the end of June 2025, domestic steel prices remain low, while prices of other construction materials have increased significantly compared to early 2025.
For domestic steel prices, the beginning of the third quarter is usually the rainy season, construction activities are unlikely to have much breakthrough. Furthermore, although the real estate sector has shown signs of warming up, it has not really improved significantly. Steel consumption may continue to remain stable, construction steel prices will fluctuate in the range of 14-15 million VND/ton.
"However, the trend will be more positive around the end of the third quarter, especially with efforts to remove difficulties in the real estate sector and the promotion of public investment, at which time steel prices may have a more obvious recovery. Expectations that the increase in housing supply and public investment will be key factors driving domestic steel output growth. Some projects are accelerating construction progress such as the North-South expressway and Long Thanh airport," FPTS's report stated.
Ms. Vu Thi Dao believes that with the Government promoting the disbursement of public investment capital as it is now, steel consumption will continue to improve in the coming time, compensating for the decline in exports. Promoting public investment projects will help support steel prices to some extent.
However, steel prices will not increase as sharply as other construction materials such as sand and stone due to abundant supply. Factories are also increasing production again. Meanwhile, construction activities of civil works and the real estate market, although gradually warming up, have not really exploded to pull steel prices up strongly.
The real estate market has not recovered as expected, the world economy is unstable and the difficulties in the new US tariff policy are the main reasons leading to the decrease in steel demand, causing steel prices to remain low in the first half of 2025.
Source: https://doanhnghiepvn.vn/kinh-te/thi-truong-thep-noi-dia-se-dien-bien-nhu-the-nao-trong-nua-cuoi-nam/20250722055406137
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