President Zelensky plays 'all-in' with Russia?

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky's decision to attack Russia's Kursk region is seen as a crucial gamble for Kyiv, aimed at gaining more leverage before negotiations with Moscow.

The Guardian reported yesterday (January 7) citing a statement from Russia that Ukraine had launched a new offensive in the Kursk region in western Russia.

Ukrainian troops in the area near the Russian border in 2024.

The role of the war in Kursk

Kursk is where Russian forces have been trying to push back Ukrainian troops for the past five months. On January 6, the Russian Ministry of Defense announced that its forces had defeated the Ukrainian side. Meanwhile, Russian military bloggers reported intense fighting and heavy pressure on Moscow. The Ukrainian General Staff, however, stated that 42 clashes had taken place in the Kursk region on January 5, with 12 still ongoing. In August 2024, Ukraine launched a cross-border assault on the Kursk region, and since then, Russian forces have only recaptured approximately 40% of the lost territory.

Speaking to Thanh Nien newspaper yesterday (January 7), US military intelligence expert Carl O. Schuster assessed: "Perhaps, before US President-elect Donald Trump takes office, President Zelensky hopes to regain the strategically important area lost to Russia last summer. Zelensky wants to strengthen his negotiating position before Trump proposes any ceasefire and peace talks regarding the Ukraine conflict."

In less than two months, the conflict in Ukraine has continuously escalated. At the end of November 2024, after being authorized by the US to use long-range weapons supplied by Washington to attack Russian territory, Kyiv launched several ATACMS missiles at Russia. However, Moscow retaliated by launching Oreshnik hypersonic intermediate-range ballistic missiles (IRBMs) to attack Ukraine. This was the first time Russia had used hypersonic IRBMs to attack Ukraine since the outbreak of the conflict. Simultaneously, Russia also launched a strong offensive against Ukraine.

In an analysis sent to Thanh Nien newspaper at the time, an expert from Eurasia Group (USA), a leading global political risk research and consulting firm, compared what was happening in the Ukraine conflict to the efforts of two football teams in the final minutes of a match. "The final whistle will soon blow after January 20, 2025 (when Mr. Trump takes office)," the Eurasia Group expert analyzed.

In reality, Trump holds significant leverage to pressure both Kyiv and Moscow into sitting down at the negotiating table. Therefore, both sides are eager to gain the upper hand on the battlefield before negotiations begin. This is the motivation behind Zelensky's willingness to go all-in before the final whistle blows.

Balance of power

Analyzing the situation in Ukraine, expert Schuster assessed: "All signs indicate that Ukraine is targeting Russian strongholds with heavy artillery and precision attacks. It is also likely that Ukraine will target positions believed to be occupied by North Korean troops. In reality, the current North Korean forces lack combat experience and are unlikely to survive heavy artillery attacks. They would also be more vulnerable to drone attacks. I believe Ukraine will achieve some initial success but must avoid exceeding its operational limits. Ukraine should secure key terrain, not advance further, and prepare for mobile defenses against a Russian counterattack expected in February."

However, expert Schuster also raised the issue: "President Zelensky could repeat the mistake of 2023 and try to continue the offensive beyond those initial successes. That would cause Ukrainian troops to suffer excessive casualties." The mistake the expert referred to was Ukraine's strong counterattack against Russia in 2023, which was unsuccessful and even resulted in heavy losses due to its forces being spread too thinly, while Moscow had an advantage in heavy artillery and missiles.

Former Colonel Schuster further analyzed: "The rains that begin in March will limit military operations, so the timing of this counterattack is almost perfect. Russia only has 3-5 weeks to redeploy forces to stop the Ukrainian advance and regain lost territory."

Source: https://thanhnien.vn/tong-thong-zelensky-choi-tat-tay-voi-nga-185250107214646501.htm