Morning of December 8: Central exchange rate increased by 1 VND

According to a survey by thoibaonganhang.vn, as of 9am this morning (December 8), the central exchange rate increased by 1 VND compared to the previous session. The USD buying and selling prices at all commercial banks were adjusted up and down with a common amplitude of 12-20 VND compared to the previous session.

The US dollar stabilized this morning after two weeks of heavy selling, as the market entered a week packed with central bank meetings, notably the US Federal Reserve (Fed) meeting, where a rate cut is almost certain, but the current level of division within the agency makes the outcome unpredictable.

In addition to the Fed's decision on Wednesday, there will also be policy meetings this week in Australia, Brazil, Canada and Switzerland, although analysts do not expect policy changes in these places.

The euro, which has been trading in a fairly narrow range since June, held around $1.1644.

The yen, after finding support after a plunge in November, traded at 155.28 JPY/USD.

Analysts expect the Fed to cut rates but with a hawkish stance - meaning that despite the rate cut, the Fed could use language and forecasts to emphasize that further rate cuts will not be easy and will require more conditions. This approach could support the dollar if it leads investors to reduce expectations for 2-3 rate cuts next year.

“We expect dissent, likely from both hawks and dovish members,” Bob Savage, chief macro strategist at The Bank of New York Mellon Corporation (BNY), said in a note to clients.

The Australian dollar held below last week's two-and-a-half-month peak of $0.6640, pausing from a run above its 200-day and 50-day moving averages, as markets moved away from interest rate cut expectations.

The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) meets on Tuesday, following a series of “hot” data on inflation, growth and household spending. Futures are now implying the next adjustment will be a rate hike, even as early as May, leaving the focus on the statement and press conference after the decision.

“We expect the RBA to keep rates on hold for an extended period, maintaining 3.60%,” ANZ analysts said in a note last week, revising their previous forecast for a possible cut.

A similar story played out in Canada: the loonie rose to a 10-week high on Friday following a strong jobs report. The Bank of Canada is expected to leave policy unchanged on Wednesday, with markets fully pricing in a rate hike by December 2026.

Early Monday, CAD was only slightly weaker, trading at 1.3829 CAD/USD.

The New Zealand dollar stood at $0.5779, while the Swiss franc edged down 0.1% to $0.8045.

Low inflation is expected to keep Switzerland's policy interest rate at 0% for the foreseeable future.

The British pound hovered around its 200-day moving average at $1.3324, while the Chinese yuan was flat at 7.068 CNY/USD in the offshore market.

In Brazil, markets expect the central bank to keep interest rates unchanged, but could signal a possible cut next quarter.

Source: https://thoibaonganhang.vn/sang-812-ty-gia-trung-tam-tang-1-dong-174781.html