Ukraine will suffer double losses if it loses its logistical fortress to Russia

Ukrainian soldiers fire a Caesar self-propelled gun towards Russian troops, on the outskirts of Pokrovsk (Photo: Reuters).

Foreign Policy reported that observers said that Ukraine's economy would be severely affected if Kiev lost control of the city of Pokrovsk in the Donetsk region.

Russia's offensive in the region "threatens to cause the fall of Pokrovsk, which poses both military and economic risks for Ukraine," the expert said.

“The city supplies most of the coal for the country’s iron and steel industry, which is the backbone of Ukraine’s economy and remains the second-largest, although production has fallen to less than a third of pre-war levels,” Foreign Policy said.

“Without the steel mills, the Ukrainian economy would be in trouble. This is a very, very important part of the economy,” said Stanislav Zinchenko, managing director of GMK Center, a Ukraine-based industrial consultancy.

A robust steel industry also contributes a large part of Ukraine’s tax revenue, helping to finance its now-flailing economy. However, Ukraine is facing a major threat of losing this strategic fortress.

Russian forces are closing in on the strategically important city of Pokrovsk, a road and rail hub with a pre-conflict population of 60,000 and tens of thousands of whom have yet to be evacuated.

Pokrovsk lies on a key route that the Ukrainian army uses to resupply other outposts such as the towns of Chasiv Yar and Kostiantynivka in the Donetsk region. Russia sees control of Pokrovsk as an important stepping stone to annexing the entire Donetsk region.

Control of the city, considered the “gateway to Donetsk,” would allow Moscow to disrupt Ukraine’s supply lines along the eastern front and intensify its campaign to control Chasiv Yar. The city has a higher geographical position and offers the possibility of controlling a larger area.

Limiting Ukrainian military access to the road network around Pokrovsk would make it difficult for Kiev to hold the territory, allowing Russia to consolidate its foothold and move forward.

The area around Pokrovsk is home to various industrial facilities that the Ukrainian military is using to defend the city. However, Russia is capable of using scorched earth tactics, using glide bombs and artillery fire, to destroy obstacles and clear the way for troops to advance.

Last week, Serhiy Dobriak, head of the Pokrovsk military administration, said Russian forces were just 7km from the city. According to him, Russia had destroyed about 80% of Ukraine's vital infrastructure there.

Meanwhile, Janek Kesselmann, deputy commander of the Estonian Military Intelligence Center, said on October 4 that the Ukrainian army may lose control of Pokrovsk in the near future.

Mr. Kesselmann added that if this intensity of attacks continues, it is likely that by the end of 2024, Ukrainian forces will be forced to withdraw from Pokrovsk and fall back to the rear defense line.

Source: https://dantri.com.vn/the-gioi/ukraine-se-thiet-don-thiet-kep-neu-mat-phao-dai-hau-can-vao-tay-nga-20241012151507248.htm